Jake Arrieta (23-6, 1.70 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs square off against Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of the Divisional Playoffs at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 6-3, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 6:07 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 12 and can be seen on TBS.
Arrieta pitched 9.0 innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Elimination Game, surrendering zero runs and striking out 11 in a 4-0 win over the Pirates. Wacha went 4.0 innings, surrendering six runs, striking out four and walking four in an 8-2 defeat to the Pirates in his most recent start. Matt Carpenter (.270, 103 Rs, 29 HRs, 85 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 Saturday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chicago, a substantial -215 favorite, takes on St. Louis. The Cubs have recorded an overall money line of +1,757 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 72-38. Chicago is an impressive 8-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Chicago leads the whole NL in walks, earning an average of 3.5 per game. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Cubs. The 3.8 runs that Chicago’s pitchers allow per game makes them the fourth-ranked staff in the NL. The Cubs are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.144 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who lead the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
In games where it is the underdog, St. Louis has a 17-20 record and an overall money line of +2,228. They are 9-10 as the underdog against NL Central opponents, and 46-30 SU. St. Louis’s pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.93 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Cardinals are fifth in the NL with an average of 8.4 hits allowed per game. The Cardinals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.2 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 12-9. The Cubs have a 78-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Wacha takes the mound. Arrieta (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 76-44 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
St. Louis recorded at least two errors for the 23rd time this season.
The Cubs are coming into this game after allowing no walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 3-9 record when opponents don’t give up any walks.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 18-47. The Cardinals have a 24-43 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, St. Louis has hit 142 this season. Chicago ranks 11th with 174 home runs.
Ranking 14th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.26 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.55.
Chicago and St. Louis both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Chicago sits at 18th with an OPS of .718 and St. Louis ranks 19th with an OPS of .717.
When the Cardinals allow at least one home run, they are 41-46. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have a 44-43 record.
