There are a lot of things we don’t know about Khabib Nurmagomedov’s situation right now but one thing we do know is when he returns, he’ll be a big favorite in a rematch over Conor McGregor.
McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov II (fight must occur in 2019 for action) (updated odds)
Conor McGregor +200
Khabib Nurmagomedov -250
As you might recall, Nurmagomedov took care of business on Saturday night when he submitted McGregor in the fourth round at UFC 229. As impressive as his performance was, it was marred by a melee afterward where Nurmagomedov jumped the fence to attack another UFC fighter, Dillon Danis, as well as members of McGregor’s corner. It was an ugly incident that saw McGregor take a blindside-cheap shot at someone in Nurmagomedov’s camp, followed by McGregor also getting blindsided and attacked by two other members of Nurmagomedov’s team.
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The end result was that arrests were made and, while most of the charges have already been dropped (McGregor refused to press charges), there will be repercussions. The UFC’s main figurehead, Dana White, stated that Nurmagomedov is likely to face serious consequences from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. That could range from a suspension to a sizable fine. Beyond that, any criminal issues could lead to Nurmagomedov having some issues with his green card and status in the United States.
To be fair, a lot of this seems overblown. McGregor faced virtually no suspension from the UFC for his dolly-throwing incident. We saw McGregor and Nate Diaz get into a bottle throwing incident leading up to UFC 202, which resulted in the fighters losing 10 percent of their purse. We also saw a massive Strikeforce brawl where a slew of fighters got into a melee and a victory speech was interrupted. Most of those guys were only hit with a $7,500 fine. We also saw Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier get into a brawl at a press conference, which spilled into the crowd. Both fighters lost 10 percent of their purse.
What all of that means is that we’ll likely see some kind of suspension for Nurmagomedov, as well as a fine, but he’ll be back at some point. He’s the champ and the UFC will lobby hard to get him back in the ring — especially in a rematch with McGregor.
In terms of the actual bout, Nurmagomedov is an even bigger favorite this time. He closed at -200 as many sharps supported him for the first fight. The public hammered McGregor, but the sharp action was squarely on Nurmagomedov. He was as low as -160 at one point but won’t be anywhere near that number for the rematch.
That’s because we saw how easily he handled McGregor. Not only did McGregor’s punches lack any sort of impact on Nurmagomedov, it was actually Khabib who floored Conor with one of his rights. So while the standing game — which was supposed to be a big edge for McGregor — was about even, Nurmagomedov absolutely mauled McGregor on the ground.
What will change in the potential rematch? We’ll have to see. About the only thing going for McGregor is that he lost to Nate Diaz in their first fight before coming back and beating him in the rematch.
