In a battle of two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Rocky Long and the San Diego State Aztecs (-10) are gearing up to welcome their MWC foe Air Force Falcons at SDCCU Stadium. The game is scheduled to begin at 9:00 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
In this Friday Mountain West game, San Diego State is tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to put up $400 in order to win $100 back on the Aztecs (-400). The Falcons are getting +300 moneyline odds. On the surface it looks like there should be some solid live betting possibilities in this game.
The game’s line opened at -10, but has moved recently.
The Falcons have lost 1.8 units so far in 2018 and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Aztecs have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 5.6 units. The team is 2-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-4.
The Falcons have gone 2-3 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Aztecs are 4-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Falcons are on the upswing after a 35-7 win over Navy last week where Donald Hammond III completed six passes for just 142 yards and one touchdown. Hammond III (60 yards on 19 rush attempts, three TDs) also mounted the running attack in the win and was complemented by Kadin Remsberg (55 yards on 12 carries). Geraud Sanders (three receptions, 55 yards) and Ronald Cleveland (two catches, 72 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
San Diego State just earned a 19-13 win over Boise State. The team’s defensive unit held its ground in the victory, keeping the Broncos to only 178 passing yards and 51 yards on the ground. Alexander Mattison was a bright spot in the loss for Boise State, accounting for 66 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts. For San Diego State, Ryan Agnew completed eight-of-15 passes for 113 yards. Chase Jasmin (78 rushing yards on 26 attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the win as Fred Trevillion (three receptions, 57 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Air Force’s run the ball on 82.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has a rush percentage of 68.0 percent. The Falcons have run for 255 yards per game (including 239 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Aztecs are logging 189 rushing yards per game and have eight total rush TDs.
It appears that the Aztecs should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.0 YPC to opponents. The Falcons have registered 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 116 yards through the air overall (122 per game versus conference opposition) and has three passing TDs so far. The Aztecs have recorded 160 pass yards per game and also have three total pass scores.
Defensively, Air Force has let opponents rush for an average of 105 yards and throw for 236 yards per game. The San Diego State defense has given up 253.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 61.8 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.27 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up an ugly 8.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hammond III has put up 142 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 6-of-10 attempts with one passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a sparkling 16.20 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.12 over the last two outings.
We expect the Air Force offense to mix it up in this one. Kadin Remsberg, Ronald Cleveland and Donald Hammond III have combined to account for 330 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two outings.
Ryan Agnew has completed 31-of-56 passes for 401 yards, one TD and two INTs for San Diego State. His ANY/A sits at a less-than-stellar 4.95 for the season and 5.29 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Aztecs will control tempo by feeding the running backs early and often. Along with WR Fred Trevillion (111 receiving yards this season), Chase Jasmin (217 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Jordan Byrd (87 rush yards, one rush TD) have brought significant production to the San Diego State offense.
When these two programs met a year ago, San Diego State earned the win 28-24.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Air Force Falcons vs. San Diego State Aztecs
SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State
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Notes
Betting Notes
Air Force was the underdog by 2 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 47. The under cashed and Air Force covered in the 35-7 victory over Navy.
Air Force has rushed for 3.82291666666667 yards per attempt over its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
San Diego State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
San Diego State has lost four fumbles this season while Air Force has lost five.
Over its last three matches, Air Force is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
San Diego State was favored by 13 points in its last outing and the O/U going into it was 50.5. The under cashed and San Diego State did not cover in the 19-13 victory over Boise State.
In its last three matches, San Diego State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Falcons offense has produced two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aztecs have put up zero such plays.
The Air Force defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while San Diego State has given up six such plays.
The Air Force offense has created four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while San Diego State has created nine such run.
The Falcons defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up one such run.
The San Diego State defense has tallied triple the sack total of Air Force this year (12 versus four).
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