The Fighting Illini (+10) are set to welcome the Purdue Boilermakers (-10) to Illinois. FS1 is scheduled to broadcast the action and this Big 10 game gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Illinois is a live dog and is currently getting 10 points in this Big 10 game. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to spend $400 in order to net $100 back on the Boilermakers (-400). The Fighting Illini are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one side can catch a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
The hapless Boilermakers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 7.7 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-2. The Fighting Illini are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-3.
The Boilermakers are 2-3 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Fighting Illini are 3-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
When these two schools met a year ago, Purdue got the victory 29-10.
The Boilermakers are coming off a resounding 42-28 win over Nebraska on September 29. David Blough completed 25-of-42 passes for 328 yards and one touchdown. D.J. Knox (87 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) and Markell Jones (59 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Rondale Moore (eight receptions, 85 yards) and Brycen Hopkins (five catches, 103 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Illinois is coming off of a 38-17 win over Rutgers. The Fighting Illini defense allowed the Scarlet Knights to run for 119 yards on 30 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jonathan Hilliman was a bright spot in the loss, posting 76 rushing yards and a score on 10 attempts for Rutgers. For Illinois, AJ Bush completed 10-of-18 passes for 89 yards and one touchdown. Bush (116 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) and Reggie Corbin (137 yards on 11 carries, one TD) mounted the running game while Trenard Davis (five receptions, 59 yards) and Ricky Smalling (two catches, 17 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Purdue has run the ball on 45.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Illinois has a rush percentage of 64.4 percent. The Boilermakers have run for 170 yards/game (including 195 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Fighting Illini are logging 261 rush yards per game (288 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it appears the Boilermakers ought to hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded only 33 sacks while the D-line registered 29 sacks. The Fighting Illini O-line has given up 42 sacks and their defense has logged only 19 sacks.
The Boilermakers offense has averaged 320 yards through the air overall (299 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Fighting Illini have put up 150 pass yards per outing (127.5 in the Big 10) and have five total pass scores.
Purdue has let opponents rush for an average of 162 yards and throw for 285 yards per game. The Illinois D has allowed 289.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 194.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Boilermakers have given up an ANY/A of 5.91 to opposing QBs, while the Fighting Illini are allowing an ANY/A of 5.91.
Offensively, Blough has amassed 1,022 passing yards on the year, and has completed 67 percent of his 123 attempts with four passing scores and one interception. He’s got a sparkling 8.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.72 over the last two games.
Rondale Moore (347 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), D.J. Knox (339 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Isaac Zico (188 receiving yards) have each played significant roles lately.
In the other huddle, M.J. Rivers II has completed 46-of-73 passes for 422 yards, three TDs and one INT. Rivers II’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-stellar 4.86 for the year and 3.67 over his past two outings.
We’re thinking the Fighting Illini will control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. AJ Bush (zero receiving yards this season) has contributed lately, but Reggie Corbin (377 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Mike Epstein (314 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Fighting Illini’s recent offensive gameplans.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Purdue
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Purdue was getting 4 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 58. The over cashed and Purdue covered in the 42-28 win over Nebraska.
Purdue has averaged 3.25531914893617 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
Illinois has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.5 over its last two.
The Illinois offense has lost two fumbles this season while Purdue has lost four.
In its last three games, Purdue is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Illinois was the underdog by 5 points in its last outing and the Over/Under was set at 51. The over cashed and Illinois covered in the 38-17 victory over Rutgers.
Over its last three matches, Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Boilermakers offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Fighting Illini have put up two such plays.
The Purdue defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Illinois has given up three such plays.
The Purdue offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Illinois has created 15 such runs.
The Boilermakers defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Fighting Illini have given up nine such runs.
The Purdue defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this year. Illinois has recorded just seven sacks.
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