Two schools that like to feature their running games, Head Coach Josh Heupel and the No. 10 UCF Knights (-4.5) are set to take on their conference counterpart Memphis Tigers at Liberty Bowl Memorial. ABC will broadcast the action and this critical afternoon matchup is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET.
UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
Memphis is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 4.5 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to put up $200 in order to win $100 back on the Knights (-200). The Tigers are getting +170 moneyline odds. Should one school catches a lucky break early, it’ll likely generate a nice in-game betting scenario.
This game’s line opened at 4 but has recently moved.
The Knights are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.0 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3. The Tigers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors in 2018, losing 10.2 units. They’re 3-3 ATS and also own an O/U record of 2-3.
The Knights are 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Tigers are 4-2 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Knights are hoping to stay undefeated following a 48-20 win over SMU last week where McKenzie Milton completed just 18-of-34 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Adrian Killins Jr. (113 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and Otis Anderson (74 yards on six carries, two TDs) provided the ground attack in the win while Tre Nixon (six receptions, 97 yards, one TD) and Dredrick Snelson (six catches, 72 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Memphis takes the field on Saturday after just getting a 55-14 win over Connecticut. The team’s defense allowed the Huskies to rush for 112 yards on 30 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Zavier Scott was a bright spot in the loss, posting 44 rushing yards on six attempts for Connecticut. For Memphis, Brady White completed 16-of-18 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown. Darrell Henderson (174 rushing yards on 14 attempts, three TDs) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (161 yards on 11 carries, three TDs) handled the ground game in the win while Tony Pollard (four receptions, 44 yards) and Sean Dykes (three catches, 62 yards) led the receiving corps.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each team has a remarkably similar (55-45) run-pass ratio on the season. The Knights have run for 269 yards/game (including 276 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 17 scores via handoffs this year. The Tigers are putting up 275 rushing yards per game (214 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Tigers ought to hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has generated 7.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.9 YPC to opponents. The Knights have registered 6.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Knights offense has averaged 305 yards in the air overall (321 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have recorded 273 pass yards per game (215.7 in the AAC) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, UCF has allowed 182 rush yards and 175 pass yards per game. The Memphis defense has given up 176.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 172.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.47 to opponents, while the Tigers have given up a 4.86 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Milton has amassed 1,173 yards this season, and has completed 61 percent of his 137 attempts with 11 passing scores and four interceptions. He’s got an 8.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.80 over the last two outings.
Adrian Killins Jr. (306 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 49 receiving yards on the year), Tre Nixon (284 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Gabriel Davis (285 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played big roles lately.
Brady White has managed to complete 94-of-126 passes for 1,303 yards, 13 TDs and one INT for Memphis. His ANY/A sits at 11.50 for the season and 8.80 over his last two outings.
We’re thinking the Tigers will control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Damonte Coxie (399 receiving yards, four TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Darrell Henderson (883 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 131 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (331 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) have brought significant production to the Tigers’ recent offensive strategies.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers
SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – UCF
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Memphis defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this season. UCF has registered nine sacks.
The Memphis offense has lost four fumbles in 2018 while the UCF offense has not lost any.
The Knights offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up seven such plays.
The UCF defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Memphis has given up three such plays.
The UCF offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Memphis has created 22 such runs.
The Knights defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tigers have given up 11 such runs.
Memphis was favored by 36 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was 77.5. The under cashed and Memphis covered in that 55-14 win over Connecticut.
In its last three contests, Memphis is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matchups, UCF is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Memphis has won four of its last five games SU, with a -16-point defeat to Tulane on September 28th representing its only loss over that span.
UCF was favored by 26 points in its previous game and the O/U was 74. The under cashed and UCF covered in the 48-20 win over SMU.
As a team, UCF has averaged 5.32608695652174 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.6 over its last two.
Memphis has averaged 6.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.7 over its last two.
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