In a matchup featuring two programs that are nationally ranked in the Top 20, the No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-13) are set to take on their conference foe No. 20 Michigan State Spartans at Beaver Stadium. This key afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and BTN will broadcast the action.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
Michigan State is a big road underdog in this Big 10 matchup and is currently getting 13 points. The Spartans are also receiving +375 moneyline odds while the Nittany Lions are -550. It appears that there should be some decent in-game betting opportunities for this matchup.
The game’s opening line was originally set at -15 and the sharp action is siding with the Spartans.
The underwhelming Spartans are down 5.3 units so far in 2018 and 1-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 4-1. The Nittany Lions have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-1 ATS and the over has hit in four of their games.
The Spartans have gone 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Spartans lost to Northwestern 29-19 in a game where Brian Lewerke completed 31-of-51 passes for 329 yards, as well as a score and a pick. Connor Heyward (seven receptions, 30 yards) and Felton Davis III (seven catches, 96 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Penn State narrowly fell 27-26 to Ohio State a couple of weeks ago. Trace McSorley completed 16-of-32 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. McSorley (175 yards on 25 rush attempts) and Miles Sanders (43 yards on 16 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Juwan Johnson (five receptions, 61 yards) and KJ Hamler (four catches, 138 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Michigan State’s run the ball on 50.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 45.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Penn State has an overall rush percentage of 60.3 percent, and has run the ball 64.6 percent of the time against Big 10 opponents. The Spartans have produced 123 rush yards per game (including 114 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Nittany Lions are totaling 261 rushing yards per game (297 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.
The Spartans offense has averaged 267 yards through the air overall (274 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Nittany Lions have put up 249 pass yards per game (245.0 against Big 10 foes) and have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, Michigan State has allowed 34 rush yards and 305 pass yards per game. The Penn State defense has allowed 192.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.8 yards per game on the ground. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.32 to opposing QBs, while the Spartans have given up a 5.17 ANY/A.
Offensively, Lewerke has amassed 1,143 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 95-of-148 attempts with six passing scores and five interceptions. He’s got a 6.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.44 over the last two outings.
Felton Davis III, Connor Heyward and Brandon Sowards have combined to account for 406 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.
In the other huddle, Trace McSorley has connected on 61-of-119 passes for 889 yards, seven TDs and one INT. McSorley’s ANY/A sits at 7.48 for the year and 8.59 over his last two games.
We also expect the Penn State offense to try for a balanced attack this Saturday. Trace McSorley (318 rushing yards, six rush TDs, zero receiving yards on the year), Miles Sanders (338 rush yards, three rush TDs) and KJ Hamler (267 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined to account for 691 total yards and six touchdowns over the last two games.
When these two squads met last year, Michigan State knocked Penn State off by a field goal 27-24.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions
SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Penn State
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Michigan State was favored by 11 points in its previous game and the O/U was 44. The over cashed and Michigan State did not cover in the 29-19 defeat to Northwestern.
As a team, Michigan State has produced 3.48648648648649 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.6 over its last two.
Penn State has averaged 6.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 6.2 over its past two.
The Penn State offense has lost four fumbles this season while Michigan State has let three get away.
Over its last three contests, Michigan State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Penn State was the underdog by 4 points in its last match and the Over/Under going into it was 69.5. The under cashed and Penn State covered in the 27-26 defeat to Ohio State.
Over its last three games, Penn State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Spartans offense has produced one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Nittany Lions have put up six such plays.
The Michigan State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Penn State has given up three such plays.
The Michigan State offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Penn State has created 11 such runs.
The Spartans defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Nittany Lions have given up four such runs.
The Penn State defense has sacked opposing QBs 16 times this year. Michigan State has registered 12 sacks.
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