In a matchup that features two schools that are nationally ranked in the Top 25 overall, the No. 22 Trojans of USC (-7) are preparing to welcome the Colorado Buffaloes to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. This crucial Pac-12 game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET and FS1 is scheduled to televise the action.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. USC Trojans Betting Preview
In this Saturday Pac-12 game, USC is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to lay down $300 in order to win $100 back on the Trojans (-300). The Buffaloes are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one side finds paydirt early, it’ll probably produce a solid live betting opportunity.
The surprising Buffaloes are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 4.3 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 0-4. The Trojans have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-2.
The Buffaloes are 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Trojans are 3-2 SU overall and are also 2-1 SU in conference play.
When these two schools met a year ago, USC won by a pair of touchdowns 38-24.
The Buffaloes are looking to stay undefeated following a 28-21 victory over Arizona State last week. The passing attack was sharp as Steven Montez completed 24-of-33 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Travon McMillian (136 yards on 30 rushes) provided the running attack while Shenault Jr. (13 receptions, 127 yards, two TDs) and K.D. Nixon (five catches, 97 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
The USC Trojans just earned a 24-20 win over Arizona. The team’s allowed the Wildcats to put up 232 yards through the air and 98 more on the ground. Shun Brown was a bright spot in the defeat for Arizona, recording 81 yards on five catches. For USC, JT Daniels completed 16-of-24 passes for 197 yards. Aca’Cedric Ware (173 rushing yards on 21 attempts, two TDs) and Stephen Carr (80 yards on 14 carries) mounted the running game while Amon-Ra St. Brown (five receptions, 54 yards) and Josh Falo (three catches, 54 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Colorado has run the ball on 57.9 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 60.8 percent across possessions in conference play. USC has an overall rush percentage of 50.0 percent, and has kept it on the ground 57.2 percent of the time when facing Pac-12 opponents. The Buffaloes have rushed for 198 yards/game (including 188 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 139 rushing yards per game (160 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Buffaloes may hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Trojans have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Buffaloes offensive scheme has averaged 293 yards in the air overall (298 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Trojans have produced 252 pass yards per contest (218.7 against Pac-12 competition) and have four total pass TDs.
Defensively, Colorado has let opponents run for an average of 154 yards and throw for 201 yards per game. The USC D has allowed 218.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 163.2 yards per game on the ground. The Buffaloes are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.04 to opponents, while the Trojans have allowed a 6.56 ANY/A.
Offensively, Montez has put up 1,183 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 93-of-127 attempts with 10 passing scores and only two interceptions. He’s got a pristine 9.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 10.35 over the last two games.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (23 rushing yards, three rush TDs, 582 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Travon McMillian (426 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Tony Brown (157 receiving yards) have each played key roles of late.
JT Daniels has managed to complete 83-of-141 passes for 1,016 yards, one TD and three INTs for USC. His ANY/A sits at 5.39 for the year and 8.70 over his last two outings.
We’re thinking the Trojans will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Backfield mates Aca’Cedric Ware (340 rush yards, three rush TDs), Stephen Carr (199 rush yards, one rush TD), and Vavae Malepeai (76 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been key factors in the USC offense.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Colorado Buffaloes at USC Trojans
SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Colorado defense has 15 sacks on the year while USC has just nine.
USC has lost four fumbles in 2018 while the Colorado offense has lost one.
Each offense has produced 13 pass plays of 30+ yards.
The Colorado defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while USC has given up two such plays.
The Colorado offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while USC has created six such runs.
The Buffaloes defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Trojans have given up 11 such runs.
USC was getting 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 62. The under cashed and USC covered in the 24-20 victory over Arizona.
Over its last three matchups, USC is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Colorado was favored by 2 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 64. The under cashed and Colorado covered in the 28-21 victory over Arizona State.
As a team, Colorado has rushed for 4.76388888888889 yards per attempt over its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
USC has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.7 over its past two.
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