A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Commodores of Vanderbilt (+7) are gearing up to welcome their SEC rival No. 14 Florida Gators (-7) to Vanderbilt Stadium. ESPN has the TV rights and this crucial daytime matchup is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
Vanderbilt enters this SEC matchup as the underdog and is currently getting 7 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to lay down $300 to win $100 back on the Gators (-300). The Commodores are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one side can create a bunch of points early on, it will probably generate a reasonable live betting scenario.
The public has been hammering the Commodores, as the opening line was 8.
The Gators are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.8 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 2-3. The Commodores have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-5.
The Gators are 5-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Commodores are 3-3 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
The Gators continue to ride high after a 27-19 win over LSU last week where Feleipe Franks completed just 12-of-27 passes for 161 yards, along with one score and a pick. Lamical Perine (85 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) and Jordan Scarlett (65 yards on 14 carries) provided the ground attack while Van Jefferson (four receptions, 44 yards) and Josh Hammond (three catches, 85 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Georgia took care of this Vanderbilt crew by a score of 41-13. Kyle Shurmur completed 14-of-28 passes for 169 yards. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (79 yards on nine rush attempts) handled the running game as C.J. Bolar (four receptions, 46 yards) and Trey Ellis (two catches, 26 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Florida has run the ball on 56.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Vanderbilt has an overall rush percentage of 50.8 percent, and has kept it on the ground 47.0 percent of the time when playing SEC opponents. The Gators have produced 182 rush yards per game (including 166 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Commodores are logging 159 rushing yards per game (115 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers this season, it seems like the Gators might own an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents. The Commodores have rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and given up 4.4 YPC to opponents.
The Gators offensive scheme has averaged 199 yards through the air overall (208 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Commodores have put up 240 pass yards per contest (187.5 against SEC foes) and have nine total pass TDs.
Florida seems to hold an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 173 yards and pass for 149 yards per game. The Vanderbilt defense has allowed 233.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.06 to opponents, while the Commodores have given up a 6.68 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Franks is up to 903 yards this season, and has connected on 51 percent of his 122 attempts with 13 passing scores and only three interceptions. Franks has a 7.85 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.08 over the last two games.
The Gators will likely try to maintain tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Josh Hammond (102 yards, one TD), Lamical Perine (200 rush yards, two rush TDs, 25 receiving yards) and Jordan Scarlett (247 rush yards, two rush TDs) have been focal points in the Florida offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Kyle Shurmur has completed 91-of-158 passes for 1,103 yards, six TDs and two INTs. Shurmur’s ANY/A sits at 6.68 for the season and 7.45 over his last two outings.
The Commodores will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with Kalija Lipscomb (322 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (293 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Khari Blasingame (150 rush yards, one rush TD, 51 receiving yards) have gotten a lot of looks lately.
When these two squads met last year, Florida won by two touchdowns 38-24.
RELATED: Week 7 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
SU Winner – Florida, ATS Winner – Florida
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Trends
Florida was favored by one point in its previous game and the Over/Under was 44. The over cashed and Florida covered in the 27-19 triumph over LSU.
As a team, Florida has averaged 4.81081081081081 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
Vanderbilt has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.3 over its past two.
The Vanderbilt offense has lost five fumbles this season while Florida has let two get away.
In its last three games, Florida is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Vanderbilt was favored by 26 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was set at 56. The under cashed and Vanderbilt failed to cover in that 41-13 loss to Georgia.
In its last three games, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Both passing attacks have produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Gators have have made nine pass plays of 30+ yards while the Commodores have created five such plays.
Both teams have allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards. The Florida defense has given up four pass plays of 30+ yards while Vanderbilt has permitted seven such plays.
The Florida offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Vanderbilt has created seven such runs.
The Gators defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Commodores have given up nine such runs.
The Florida defense has 20 sacks on the year while Vanderbilt has just 11.
+++++
