The Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats will square off on the turf at Kroger Field. Fans can catch the action live on SEC Network and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
Vanderbilt is a live dog in this Saturday pairing and is currently getting 11 points. The Commodores are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are -425. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it will likely produce a worthwhile betting scenario in-game.
The sharp action has been siding with the Commodores. The opening line was -12 and the game’s over/under has not moved after it was initially established at 48.
The Commodores are down 1.0 unit so far in 2018 and 3-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-5. The surprising Wildcats are up 8.3 units this season. They’re 3-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-4.
The Commodores have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 5-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
The Commodores are most-recently on the rebound after a 37-27 defeat to Florida last week. Kyle Shurmur completed only 18 passes on 36 attempts for 229 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jamauri Wakefield (32 rushing yards on eight attempts, one TD) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (56 yards on seven carries) led the running attack while Kalija Lipscomb (four receptions, 64 yards) and Khari Blasingame (three catches, 16 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Kentucky just fell 20-14 to Texas A&M. Terry Wilson completed 13-of-20 passes for 108 yards and one touchdown. Wilson (4 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Benny Snell (60 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game while Snell (four receptions, 18 yards) and C.J. Conrad (three catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Vanderbilt has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 44.2 percent across possessions in conference play. Kentucky has a run percentage of 66.1 percent, and has rushed the ball 70.1 percent of the time when playing SEC opponents. The Commodores have run for 152 yards/game (including 112 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 224 rushing yards per game (199 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Wildcats might hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their running backs has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Commodores have tallied 4.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.
The Commodores offense has averaged 238 yards in the air overall (201 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Wildcats have recorded 146 pass yards per contest (115.5 against SEC competition) and have six total pass scores.
Vanderbilt has let opponents rush for an average of 183 yards and throw for 241 yards per game. The Kentucky defense has allowed 185.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.64 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores have given up a 6.92 ANY/A.
Offensively, Shurmur has amassed 1,460 passing yards this season. He’s completed 60 percent of his 195 attempts with 11 scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 7.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.71 over the last two outings.
Terry Wilson has completed 62-of-93 passes for 571 yards, three TDs and four INTs for Kentucky. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 3.75 for the season and 4.13 across his past two outings.
These two squads met last year with the final result being a 44-21 victory for Kentucky.
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Over/Under for Vanderbilt’s last game was set at 51. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 loss to Florida.
Vanderbilt has produced 5.9 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
Kentucky has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.5 over its past two.
Kentucky has lost three fumbles this season while Vanderbilt has lost five.
In its last three matchups, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Vanderbilt has lost five of its last six games SU, with a four-point victory over Tennessee State on September 29th accounting for the only win over that span.
The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last matchup going into it was 49. The under cashed in that 20-14 loss to Texas A&M.
In its last three contests, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Commodores offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have put up three such plays.
The Vanderbilt defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kentucky has given up two such plays.
The Vanderbilt offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kentucky has created 14 such runs.
The Commodores defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wildcats have given up five such runs.
The Kentucky D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this season. Vanderbilt has produced 13 sacks.
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