A couple of teams that prefer to feature their running games, Head Coach Jeff Tedford and the Fresno State Bulldogs (-14) are set to face off against their in-conference nemesis New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. Kickoff for this key game is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and ESPNU is scheduled to broadcast the action.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
New Mexico is a noticeable home underdog in this MWC game and is currently being given 14 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +500. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points, and there will probably be some decent live betting scenarios for this matchup.
Sharp bettors have been siding with the Lobos, as the line opened at 16.5. The O/U hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 55.5.
The profitable Bulldogs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.9 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-4. The Lobos have lost 0.6 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and the over has hit in four of its games.
The Bulldogs are 5-1 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 3-3 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 27-3 victory over Wyoming last weekTheir defense allowed the Cowboys to rush for 104 yards on 30 attempts. Nico Evans had a productive day for the Cowboys in that one with 58 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Offensively, Marcus McMaryion completed 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Hokit (just 24 rushing yards on nine attempts) led the ground attack while Jared Rice (seven receptions, 94 yards, one TD) and KeeSean Johnson (five catches, 51 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
One game ago, Colorado State took care of this New Mexico team by a score of 20-18. The Lobos defense allowed the Rams to pass for 311 yards while rushing for 112 yards. Izzy Matthews had a good outing in the win for Colorado State, accounting for 92 rushing yards on 26 attempts. For New Mexico, Sheriron Jones completed 12-of-20 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Tyrone Owens (65 rushing yards on 18 attempts) led the running game while Elijah Lilly (three receptions, 50 yards, one TD) and Delane Hart-Johnson (three catches, 36 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Fresno State has run the ball on 53.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 48.7 percent across possessions in conference play. New Mexico has a run percentage of 65.9 percent, and has rushed the ball 69.9 percent of the time when playing MWC opponents. The Bulldogs have rushed for 133 yards/game (including 67 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 16 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 199 rush yards per game (193 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
The Bulldogs offense has logged 271 yards per game through the air overall (264 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Lobos have produced 234 pass yards per game (207.5 against MWC competition) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Fresno State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 121 yards and pass for 180 yards per game. The New Mexico defense has allowed 271.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 171.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.77 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed a 5.75 ANY/A.
Offensively, McMaryion is up to 1,337 passing yards this year, and has connected on 71 percent of his 154 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. He’s got a pristine 8.96 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.84 over the last two outings.
Sheriron Jones has managed to complete 49-of-85 passes for 705 yards, eight TDs and six INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A sits at 5.95 for the year and 12.16 over his last two outings.
These two teams met a year ago with the final outcome being a 38-0 win for Fresno State.
RELATED: Week 8 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos
SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The New Mexico defense has created 15 sacks on the year while Fresno State has 13.
The New Mexico offense has lost five fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost three.
The Bulldogs offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have accounted for eight such plays.
The Fresno State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New Mexico has given up eight such plays.
The Fresno State offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Mexico has created eight such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lobos have given up six such runs.
The O/U for New Mexico’s last match was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 20-18 defeat to Colorado State.
In its last three contests, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Fresno State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Fresno State’s last game was set at 44. The under cashed in the team’s 27-3 victory over Wyoming.
Fresno State has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.4 over its last two.
New Mexico has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
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