A couple of schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Lovie Smith and the Illinois Fighting Illini (+25) are taking on their conference counterpart No. 23 Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. This vital daytime game is scheduled to start at 12:00 p.m. ET and FS1 will televise the action.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
Wisconsin has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 25 points to Illinois. If the Fighting Illini get ahead in the early stages it will generate a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points.
This game’s line opened at -26. The over/under hasn’t changed after being initially established at 54.5.
The Fighting Illini are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4. The Badgers have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 1-5 ATS and the over has hit in four of its games.
The Fighting Illini are 3-3 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Badgers are 4-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.
The Fighting Illini hope to bounce back after a 46-7 defeat to Purdue last week. The defense allowed the Boilermakers to pass for 384 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 227 yards and two scores. D.J. Knox posted a productive day for the Boilermakers in that one with 150 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Offensively, AJ Bush completed only 12 passes on 25 attempts for 170 yards and one interception. Trenard Davis (three receptions, 44 yards) and Carmoni Green (three catches, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties.
On October 13, Michigan took care of this Wisconsin team by a score of 38-13. The Badgers defensive unit allowed the Wolverines to run for 320 yards on 48 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Karan Higdon had a productive showing for Michigan, recording 105 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. For Wisconsin, Alex Hornibrook completed seven-of-20 passes for 100 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jonathan Taylor (101 yards on 17 rush attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat while Jake Ferguson (two receptions, 46 yards) and Kendric Pryor (two catches, 30 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Illinois has run the ball on 62.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Wisconsin has a rush percentage of 65.5 percent. The Fighting Illini have produced 229 rush yards per game (including 215 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 12 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Badgers are putting up 270 rush yards per game (254 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Badgers should own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 6.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Fighting Illini have tallied 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 5.1 YPC to opponents.
The Fighting Illini offense has averaged 155 yards in the air overall (145 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Badgers have recorded 178 pass yards per outing (156.0 in the Big 10) and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Illinois has let opponents rush for an average of 200 yards and throw for 305 yards per game. The Wisconsin defense has given up 203.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Fighting Illini have given up an ANY/A of 6.59 to opposing QBs, while the Badgers are yielding an ANY/A of 6.55.
Offensively, Bush is up to 393 passing yards this year, and has completed 30-of-55 attempts with zero scores through the air and one interception. He’s got a 4.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.98 over the last two outings.
Alex Hornibrook has completed 67-of-110 passes for 900 yards, seven TDs and four INTs for Wisconsin. His ANY/A sits at 6.71 for the season and 4.17 over his last two outings.
When these two programs faced one another a year ago, Wisconsin knocked Illinois off by two touchdowns 24-10.
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Notes
Betting Notes
The O/U for Illinois’ previous game was 62. The under cashed in the team’s 46-7 loss to Purdue.
As a team, Illinois has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.4 over its last two.
Wisconsin has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.2 over its past two.
The Wisconsin offense has lost three fumbles this season while Illinois has lost two.
In its last three games, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Wisconsin’s previous match was 46.5. The over cashed in that 38-13 loss to Michigan.
Over its last three matches, Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Both teams have produced two pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Fighting Illini have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Badgers have created five such plays.
The Illinois defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Wisconsin has given up four such plays.
The Illinois offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Wisconsin has created 14 such runs.
The Fighting Illini defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Badgers have given up eight such runs.
The Illinois defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 10 times this season. Wisconsin has recorded eight sacks.
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