The Denver Nuggets (1-0) welcome the Phoenix Suns (1-0) to Pepsi Center for their home opener. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 20, 2018, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver is a 9.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 224.5 points.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
In the Suns’ last matchup, they blew out the Dallas Mavericks, 121-100, as 2.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (221) were over the O/U total of 212.5. Phoenix’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Dallas. The Suns had a rate of 0.660, while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.489. Phoenix was led by Devin Booker, who was the game’s leading scorer with 35 points on 12-for-19 shooting.
The Nuggets were victorious over the Los Angeles Clippers in their last outing, 107-98, covering as 2-point favorites. The combined points for the game (205) came in well under the O/U total of 222.5. The Nuggets had a much better free throw rate (0.379 vs. 0.230) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.9 vs. 17.6). Nikola Jokic was the game’s high scorer with 21 points on 6-for-13 shooting.
Expect Denver to own the offensive glass in this matchup. Dating back to last season, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while Phoenix ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent).
Since last season, the Suns have had records of 22-61 straight up (SU) and 41-40-2 against the spread (ATS). Games including Phoenix have had a tendency to finish over the O/U total since last season (59.0 percent).
Meanwhile, the Nuggets, are 47-36 SU and 46-35-2 ATS since last season. Denver’s games have had a tendency to finish over the O/U total over that same stretch (60.2 percent).
The Nuggets won two out of three meetings against the Suns last season. In the last contest, Denver won 123-113. Denver did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (20-22; 90.9 percent). Phoenix, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (20.5 vs. 17.6).
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Denver is 16-2 when they allow under 100 points, while Phoenix is 8-2.
The Suns are 17-36 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 40-26.
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Phoenix ranks 26th (45.8).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (25.0) while the Suns rank 27th (21.4).
Denver averages 14.0 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.1).
The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.4) while the Suns rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
Denver averages 16.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Nuggets average 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Suns rank last in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.9) while Phoenix ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.2).
The Nuggets average 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Suns rank 29th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
Denver averages 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.3).
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