The Vanderbilt Commodores and Arkansas Razorbacks will go at it on the turf at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Kickoff for this conference game is set for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to SEC Network.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
Arkansas is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 1 point in this Saturday SEC game. The Commodores are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are -105. Should one team can catch a lucky break in the early stages it’ll produce a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52.5 points.
The game’s over/under was set originally at 51.5, but sharp bettors are hammering the over.
The Commodores have lost 2.0 units so far in 2018 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-6. The hapless Razorbacks have lost 10.6 units this season. The team is 5-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-5.
The Commodores have gone 3-5 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-6 SU overall and are also 0-4 SU in conference play.
These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to face each other in 2017.
The Commodores fell to Kentucky 14-7 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Wildcats to eat up the clock by rushing for 280 yards on 53 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Benny Snell was unmatched for the Wildcats in that one with 169 rushing yards and a score on 32 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Kyle Shurmur completed 15-of-23 passes for 216 yards and one touchdown. Jamauri Wakefield (74 yards on 19 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack. Kalija Lipscomb (five receptions, 28 yards) and Jared Pinkney (three catches, 44 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Arkansas just got a 23-0 win over Tulsa. The team’s defense allowed the Golden Hurricane to run for 133 yards on 40 rush attempts. Shamari Brooks had a good outing in the loss for Tulsa, posting 91 rushing yards on 20 attempts. For Arkansas, Connor Noland completed 10-of-16 passes for 124 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Rakeem Boyd had an outstanding day in the win. In addition to 99 yards on 22 rush attempts, Boyd also reeled in three catches for 14 yards.
Vanderbilt has run the ball on 50.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 47.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas has an overall rush percentage of 57.4 percent, and has kept it on the ground 54.2 percent of the time when facing SEC opponents. The Commodores have produced 141 rush yards per game (including 101 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Razorbacks are putting up 172 rushing yards per game (169 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.
The Commodores offensive scheme has averaged 235 yards through the air overall (205 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Razorbacks have put up 198 pass yards per outing (186.0 against SEC competition) and have 13 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Vanderbilt should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 195 yards and throw for 213 yards per game. The Arkansas D has allowed 267.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Commodores have given up an ANY/A of 6.82 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks are yielding an ANY/A of 7.23.
Offensively, Shurmur has put up 1,616 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 61 percent of his 210 attempts with 10 scores through the air and four interceptions. Shurmur’s got a 7.10 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.42 over the last two games.
The Commodores will likely try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (495 rush yards, five rush TDs, 131 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Jamauri Wakefield (279 rush yards, one rush TD) have brought significant production to the offensive scheme for Vanderbilt.
On the other sideline, Connor Noland has completed 14-of-23 passes for 149 yards, one TD and two INTs. Noland’s ANY/A sits at a terrible 1.86 for the season and 6.19 across his past two games.
The Razorbacks also like to keep their RBs featured. Along with La’Michael Pettway (226 receiving yards, three receiving TDs), Rakeem Boyd (393 rush yards, 118 receiving yards) and Chase Hayden (152 rush yards) have gotten quite a few touches lately.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks
SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Commodores have made eight pass plays of 30+ yards while the Razorbacks have accounted for 14 such plays.
The Vanderbilt defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Arkansas has given up 10 such plays.
The Vanderbilt offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Arkansas has created nine such runs.
The Commodores defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Razorbacks have given up seven such runs.
The Arkansas defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this season. Vanderbilt has recorded just 13 sacks.
Vanderbilt has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.3 over its last two.
Arkansas has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its past two.
Vanderbilt has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a four-point win over Tennessee State on September 29th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
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