Two schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs (-14.5) are set to take on the Kansas Jayhawks at Kivisto Field at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff for this Big 12 game is set for 3:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FS1. These schools met a year ago with the final result being a 43-0 win for TCU.
TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big 12 game, TCU is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14.5 points. The Horned Frogs are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Jayhawks are +510. If one side can create a bunch of points early it’ll create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49 points.
Sharp bettors are hammering both the Horned Frogs and the under. The opening line was initially set at 13 and the game’s total was originally 50.5.
The Horned Frogs are down 5.7 units so far and 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4. The Jayhawks have lost 4.3 units this season. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Horned Frogs have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against conference opponents. The Jayhawks are 2-5 SU overall and are also 0-4 SU in conference play.
The Horned Frogs came up short to Oklahoma 52-27 in a blowout where the passing attack could’ve been more effective as the Horned Frogs completed 10-of-25 passes for 163 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Michael Collins went seven-for-17 for 142 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Shawn Robinson completed three-of-eight for 21 yards. Sewo Olonilua (34 rushing yards on 11 attempts) mounted the ground attack. KaVontae Turpin (five receptions, 62 yards, one TD) and John Stephens Jr. (one catch, 47 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Kansas just fell 48-16 to Texas Tech. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Red Raiders to pass for 441 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 112 yards and three scores. Antoine Wesley was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 155 yards and a score on nine catches for Texas Tech. For Kansas, Peyton Bender completed 18-of-41 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Pooka Williams Jr. (70 yards on 16 rush attempts) handled the running game as Daylon Charlot (four receptions, 67 yards) and Kwamie Lassiter II (four catches, 41 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Each team has a strikingly similar (52-48) run-pass ratio on the season. The Horned Frogs have run for 167 yards/game (including 123 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Jayhawks are logging 155 rush yards per game (103 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it seems like the Horned Frogs should hold an advantage in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed only 18 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The Jayhawks, on the other hand, have allowed 29 sacks and their defense has generated only 19 sacks.
The Horned Frogs offense has tallied 227 yards/contest through the air overall (217 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Jayhawks have produced 187 pass yards per game (205.8 in the Big 12) and also have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, TCU should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 157 yards and throw for 186 yards per game. The Kansas D has allowed 255.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 167.9 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Horned Frogs have given up an ANY/A of 5.78 to opposing QBs, while the Jayhawks are yielding an ANY/A of 6.12.
Offensively, Robinson has put up 1,044 passing yards this year, and has completed 98-of-159 attempts with seven scores through the air and six interceptions. Robinson’s got a 5.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.64 over the last two games.
KaVontae Turpin (290 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Jalen Reagor (392 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Darius Anderson (348 rush yards, two rush TDs) have all played key roles recently.
Peyton Bender has connected on 71-of-130 passes for 711 yards, six TDs and one INT for Kansas. His ANY/A sits at 4.82 for the season and 4.83 over his last two outings.
We’re expecting the Jayhawks to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Daylon Charlot (75 receiving yards this season) has contributed lately, but Pooka Williams Jr. (544 rush yards, four rush TDs, 104 receiving yards) and Khalil Herbert (199 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant focal points in the Kansas offense.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks
SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Trends
Kansas has lost four fumbles this season while TCU has lost six.
The TCU D has 18 sacks on the year while Kansas has just 12.
TCU has rushed for 3.2 yards per attempt over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
Kansas has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
In its last three contests, Kansas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for TCU’s last game going into it was 61. The over cashed in the team’s 52-27 defeat to Oklahoma.
Over its last three contests, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Kansas’ previous matchup was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 48-16 loss to Texas Tech.
TCU has lost five of its last six games SU, with a three-point win over Iowa State on September 29th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
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