Two teams that prefer to run the football, Bulldogs of Mississippi State (-3) are set to host their SEC counterpart No. 16 Texas A&M Aggies at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Kickoff for this keygame is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and spectators can tune in to the action on ESPN.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Aggies head into this Saturday SEC game as the dog here and they’re currently getting 3 points. The Aggies are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -140. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 45 points. Some good in-game betting opportunities should exist during this matchup.
The game’s total has shifted up after opening at 44.5. The original spread (-3) has stayed firm.
The Aggies are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.0 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4. The Bulldogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this year, losing 5.7 units. The team is 4-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-5.
The Aggies are 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-3 SU overall and are also 1-3 SU in conference play.
The Aggies continue riding high after a 26-23 win over South Carolina on October 13. The defense did its part in the win, keeping the Gamecocks to just 223 passing yards and 76 yards on the ground. Deebo Samuel had a good day for the Gamecocks in that one with 88 yards and a score on seven catches. Offensively, Kellen Mond completed 25-of-37 passes for 353 yards and one touchdown. Trayveon Williams (78 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Mond (25 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the win. Quartney Davis (nine receptions, 127 yards) and Jace Sternberger (seven catches, 145 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
Back on October 20, LSU got the win against this Mississippi State team by a score of 19-3. The Bulldogs defense allowed the Tigers to eat up the clock by running for 110 yards on 44 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a good showing for LSU, recording 46 rushing yards on 16 attempts. For Mississippi State, Nick Fitzgerald completed eight-of-24 passes for 59 yards and four interceptions. Fitzgerald (131 rushing yards on 23 attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat as Hill (two receptions, 10 yards) and Deddrick Thomas (one catch, 15 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Texas A&M’s run the ball on 55.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has an overall rush percentage of 60.1 percent. The Aggies have rushed for 204 yards/game (including 144 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Bulldogs are putting up 235 rushing yards per game (178 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Bulldogs should hold an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has given up only 12 sacks while the D-line has logged 19 sacks. The Aggies O-line has given up 23 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 17 occasions.
The Aggies offense has averaged 282 yards in the air overall (261 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 171 pass yards per game (92.8 against SEC foes) and have nine total pass TDs.
Texas A&M has allowed opponents to run for an average of 78 yards and pass for 242 yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has allowed 167.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.71 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have given up a 7.82 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mond has amassed 1,574 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 114-of-185 attempts with eight passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 7.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.67 over the last two games.
We expect the Texas A&M offense to mix it up in this one. Trayveon Williams (660 rushing yards, seven rush TDs, 65 receiving yards on the year), Jace Sternberger (401 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Quartney Davis (286 receiving yards, one TD) have all played significant roles recently.
In the home locker room, Nick Fitzgerald has completed 60-of-130 passes for 699 yards, four TDs and six INTs. Fitzgerald’s ANY/A sits at a very poor 2.98 for the year and -2.50 over his last two games.
We expect the Bulldogs to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Nick Fitzgerald (zero receiving yards this season), Kylin Hill (390 rush yards, three rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Aeris Williams (197 rush yards, one rush TD, one TD) have brought significant production to the Bulldogs’ recent offensive gameplans.
These two schools met a year ago with the final outcome being a 35-14 victory for Mississippi State.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs
SU Winner – Texas A&M, ATS Winner – Texas A&M, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
When it comes to explosive plays, each team has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards and eight pass plays of 30+ yards.
The Texas A&M defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Mississippi State has given up two such plays.
The Texas A&M offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created 13 such runs.
The Aggies defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Bulldogs have given up five such runs.
The Mississippi State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this year. Texas A&M has recorded 17 sacks.
As a team, Texas A&M has produced 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its last two.
Mississippi State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.9 over its last two.
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