A couple of teams that like to focus on their running games, Head Coach Barry Odom and the Missouri Tigers (-7) are set to face their in-conference rival No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats at Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. Kickoff for this crucialmatchup is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network has the TV rights.
Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Southeastern matchup, Missouri is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to put up $300 to win $100 back on the Tigers (-300). The Wildcats are getting +220 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points. It appears that there should be multiple solid live betting opportunities in this game.
Betting odds have swayed slightly from where they initially opened. The line opened at -7 while the game’s total was originally set at 55.
The profitable Wildcats are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 9.3 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-5. The Tigers have gained 0.9 units this season. The team is 3-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-1.
The Wildcats are 6-1 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 4-3 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Wildcats just notched a 14-7 victory over Vanderbilt last week. Terry Wilson completed just three passes on 9 attempts for 18 yards and one touchdown. Benny Snell (169 yards on 32 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Wilson (91 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the win. Lynn Bowden (three receptions, 18 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Missouri just got a blowout 65-33 win over Memphis. The defensive unit allowed the Tigers to run for 200 yards on 43 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Tony Pollard was a bright spot in the loss for Memphis, accounting for 75 rushing yards on eight attempts, along with 44 yards on two catches. For Missouri, Drew Lock completed 23-of-29 passes for 350 yards and four touchdowns. Damarea Crockett (56 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and Larry Rountree III (118 yards on nine carries, three TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Albert Okwuegbunam (six receptions, 159 yards, three TDs) and Jalen Knox (five catches, 104 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps.
Kentucky has run the ball on 68.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Missouri has an overall rush percentage of 52.7 percent. The Wildcats have rushed for 232 yards/game (including 215 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 17 scores via handoffs this year. The Tigers are totaling 200 rush yards per game (176 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
Based on the results this season, it appears that the Wildcats may have the advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Tigers have rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.
The Wildcats offense has averaged 127 yards through the air overall (96 per game against conference opposition) and has seven passing scores so far. The Tigers have put up 301 pass yards per outing (189.0 against SEC foes) and have 16 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Kentucky should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 112 yards and throw for 190 yards per game. The Missouri defense has given up 287.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 131.6 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.05 to opponents, while the Tigers have given up an 8.34 ANY/A.
Offensively, Wilson is up to 613 passing yards on the year, and has completed 64 percent of his 102 attempts with three scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 3.85 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.03 over the last two games.
We expect the Kentucky offense to mix it up in this one. Benny Snell (808 rushing yards, nine rush TDs this season), Terry Wilson (95 rush yards, three rush TDs, -6 receiving yards) and Lynn Bowden (236 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played key roles of late.
Drew Lock has connected on 141-of-226 passes for 1,837 yards, 15 TDs and four INTs for Missouri. His ANY/A sits at 8.37 for the season and 7.95 across his past two games.
We also expect the Missouri offense to spread its attack this Saturday. Albert Okwuegbunam, Jalen Knox and Larry Rountree III have collectively accounted for 568 total yards and eight touchdowns the last two outings.
When these two programs met last year, Kentucky knocked Missouri off by two field goals 40-34.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
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SU Winner – Missouri, ATS Winner – Missouri, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Wildcats offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Tigers have put up 10 such plays.
The Kentucky defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Missouri has given up 11 such plays.
The Kentucky offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Missouri has created eight such runs.
The Wildcats defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up six such runs.
The Kentucky defensive unit has twice as many sacks as Missouri this year (20 to 10).
Kentucky has produced 4.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.2 over its last two.
Missouri has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.6 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, Missouri is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Kentucky’s previous game was 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-7 win over Vanderbilt.
In its last three contests, Kentucky is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Missouri’s last matchup was 70.5. The over cashed in the 65-33 win over Memphis.
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