In a battle of two schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Matt Wells and the Utah State Aggies (-23) are set to face off against their in-conference foe New Mexico Lobos at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET and STAD,FCBK has the TV rights.
New Mexico Lobos at Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
New Mexico is a heavy live dog here and is currently receiving 23 points from bookmakers. If the Aggies fall behind early on it will create a nice betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 63.5 points.
The total has not moved after it was initially set at 63.5. Having said that, the line opened at -24 so has recently moved up to -23.
The Lobos are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.6 units this season. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 4-2. The surprising Aggies are up 3.0 units in 2018. The team is 6-1 ATS and six of its games have gone over the total.
The Lobos are 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Aggies are 6-1 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.
Utah State enters this one on a two-game losing streak while New Mexico has won its last six in a row. The Lobos fell to Fresno State 38-7 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Bulldogs to eat up the clock by running for 153 yards on 44 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. KeeSean Johnson had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 149 yards and two touchdowns on eight catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Sheriron Jones completed only 15 passes on 32 attempts for 147 yards, along with one score and a pick. Tyrone Owens (83 yards on 19 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jones (42 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground attack in the loss. Patrick Reed (three receptions, 28 yards) and Delane Hart-Johnson (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Utah State just picked up a 24-16 win over Wyoming. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Cowboys to run for 231 yards on 50 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Nico Evans was a force to be reckoned with, recording 133 rushing yards and a score on 25 attempts, along with 40 yards on two catches for Wyoming. For Utah State, Jordan Love completed 12-of-28 passes for 53 yards and one interception. Darwin Thompson (109 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) and Gerold Bright (35 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Jordan Nathan (three receptions, 12 yards) and Bright (three catches, six yards) led the receiving attack.
New Mexico has run the ball on 64.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has a rush percentage of 51.5 percent. The Lobos have produced 191 rush yards per game (including 178 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are putting up 190 rushing yards per game (165 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Aggies should hold an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has logged 5.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Lobos have registered 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Lobos offensive scheme has averaged 222 yards through the air overall (187 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Aggies have recorded 248 pass yards per game (262.0 against MWC foes) and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New Mexico has allowed opponents to run for an average of 169 yards and throw for 273 yards per game. The Utah State defense has allowed 193.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 167.6 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.17 to opponents, while the Lobos have given up a 6.35 ANY/A.
Offensively, Jones is up to 937 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 65-of-117 attempts with 11 scores through the air and seven interceptions. He has a 6.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.73 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from New Mexico in this one. Tyrone Owens (442 rushing yards, six rush TDs, one receiving touchdown on the year), Anselem Umeh (161 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Sheriron Jones (188 rush yards, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles recently.
For the home team, Jordan Love has managed to complete 120-of-191 passes for 1,288 yards, nine TDs and four INTs. Love’s ANY/A stands at 6.31 for the season and 8.15 across his last two games.
We’re thinking the Aggies will control the game’s clock by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Jalen Greene (312 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Darwin Thompson (483 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Gerold Bright (384 rush yards, four rush TDs, one TD) have been significant factors in the Aggies’ recent offensive strategies.
These two schools faced off a year ago with the final result being a 24-10 victory for Utah State.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free NCAA Betting Tip: New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies
SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Lobos offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aggies have accounted for three such plays.
The New Mexico defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Utah State has given up four such plays.
The New Mexico offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Utah State has created 16 such runs.
The Lobos defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up 10 such runs.
The Utah State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. New Mexico has produced 16 sacks.
New Mexico has produced 4.2 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
Utah State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its last two.
In its last three matches, Utah State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for New Mexico’s last game was set at 52. The under cashed in the team’s 38-7 defeat to Fresno State.
In its last three games, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Utah State’s last outing was set at 50.5. The under cashed in the 24-16 victory over Wyoming.
New Mexico has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th representing the only victory over that span.
*****