It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Charlotte Hornets (3-4) welcome the Miami Heat (3-3) to Spectrum Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 30, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Carolina.
Charlotte opened as a 2-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222 points.
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets ATS Prediction
The last time the Heat played, they were 1.5-point favorites and fell to the Sacramento Kings, 123-113. The game’s total points (236) finished well over the O/U total of 220. Sacramento’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Miami. The Kings had a rate of 10.0 (better than their season average of 12.5), while the Heat posted a mark of 15.1. Hassan Whiteside had a solid performance for Miami, finishing with 16 points, 24 rebounds and five blocks.
The Hornets lost a close one to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest, 105-103, but were able to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (208) finished well under the projected point total of 231. Philadelphia’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The 76ers had 14 offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Hornets had nine and 48, respectively. Kemba Walker had a solid performance for Charlotte, leading both teams in scoring with 37 points on 11-for-31 shooting.
The aggressive Charlotte offense could be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this matchup. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Hornets rank first in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.229, while Miami ranks 29th in FTA rate allowed (0.218).
Miami heads into the game with records of 3-3 straight up (SU) and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Heat have typically finished over the total (60.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Charlotte is 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS. Games including the Hornets also have typically gone over the total (57.1 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Walker scored a game-high 39 points and the Hornets, who were 3.5-point underdogs, beat the Heat 113-112. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 225 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 220 points. Charlotte had a better turnover percentage (9.6 vs. 12.9). Miami, on the other hand, did a great job of making free throws (19-27; 70.4 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Betting Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Miami is 28-6 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Charlotte is 14-3.
When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 36-24 and the Hornets are 38-27.
Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (21.3) while Charlotte ranks 25th (24.6).
The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Hornets rank 20th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
Charlotte ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 15th (16.2).
The Hornets rank fourth in rebounds per game (45.4) while the Heat rank 17th (43.9).
Miami ranks 17th in steals per game (7.5) while Charlotte ranks 29th (6.8).
The Hornets rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.7) while the Heat rank 13th (12.3).
Miami ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.7) while Charlotte ranks 19th in three pointers allowed per game (30.3).
The Heat average 44.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Hornets rank 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.4).
Miami is 26th in the league with 9.8 fast break points per game while Charlotte is 28th with 9.3 fast break points per game.
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