The Navy Midshipmen (+13) are heading west to visit the Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium. ESPNU is scheduled to broadcast the action and this AAC matchup kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET. When these two programs met last year, Navy emerged victorious by a final score of 42-32.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview
Navy is a significant road underdog in this AAC game and is currently getting 13 points. The Midshipmen are also receiving +375 moneyline odds while the Bearcats are -550. If one school can catch a lucky break early it’ll create a reasonable live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.
Early action has moved toward the under. The game’s over/under originally opened at 51.5.
The hapless Midshipmen have lost 9.9 units so far and are 2-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3. The Bearcats have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 9.0 units. The team is 5-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-5.
The Midshipmen have gone only 2-6 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AAC opponents. The Bearcats are 7-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
The Midshipmen fell to Notre Dame 44-22 in a blowout where their D allowed the Fighting Irish to pass for 330 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 254 yards and four scores. Dexter Williams was on a different level for the Fighting Irish in that one with 142 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 23 attempts. On the offensive side, Garret Lewis completed only four-of-11 passes for 52 yards and one interception. Malcolm Perry (133 yards on 12 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Lewis (13 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. Perry (three receptions, 18 yards) and Mychal Cooper (one catch, 34 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Cincinnati is coming off of a 26-20 win over SMU. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Mustangs to air it out for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Reggie Roberson, Jr. was a bright spot in the defeat for SMU, recording 147 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. For Cincinnati, Desmond Ridder completed 33-of-50 passes for 352 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ridder (47 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Michael Warren II (67 yards on 14 carries) handled the running game while Kahlil Lewis (12 receptions, 174 yards, two TDs) and Warren II (six catches, 45 yards) led all Cincinnati pass-catchers in the win.
Navy’s run the ball on 84.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 88.0 percent across possessions in conference play. Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 62.0 percent, and has carried the ball 57.5 percent of the time when facing AAC opponents. The Midshipmen have produced 307 rush yards/game (including 307 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 27 scores on the ground this year. The Bearcats are putting up 232 rush yards per game (229 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.
The Midshipmen offensive scheme has logged 75 yards/contest in the air overall (67 per game versus conference opposition) and has three passing scores so far. The Bearcats have recorded 217 pass yards per contest (244.0 against AAC foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Navy has allowed 177 rush yards and 263 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati D has given up 186.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 102.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bearcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.12 to opponents, while the Midshipmen have allowed a 7.99 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Lewis is up to 263 yards this season. He’s connected on 40 percent of his 47 attempts with one passing scores and one interception. Lewis has a 4.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.17 over the past two games.
Desmond Ridder has completed 115-of-175 passes for 1,414 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs for Cincinnati. His ANY/A stands at 7.56 for the season and 3.45 over his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 10 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Navy Midshipmen at Cincinnati Bearcats
SU Winner – Cincinnati, ATS Winner – Cincinnati, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Trends
The Cincinnati defense has notched more than twice as many sacks as Navy this year (15 versus seven).
Both teams have lost seven fumbles this season.
The Midshipmen have made five pass plays of 30+ yards while the Bearcats have accounted for nine such plays.
The Navy defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Cincinnati has given up five such plays.
The Navy offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Cincinnati has created 18 such runs.
The Midshipmen defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bearcats have given up five such runs.
The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s last game was set at 52. The under cashed in the 26-20 victory over SMU.
Over its last three contests, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, Navy is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Navy’s last game was set at 57. The over cashed in the team’s 44-22 loss to Notre Dame.
As a team, Navy has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its past three contests and 5.5 over its last two.
Cincinnati has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.8 over its last two.
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