A couple of teams that prefer to feature their running games, Head Coach Rocky Long and the San Diego State Aztecs (-10.5) are set to face off against their conference nemesis New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This showdown will kick off fairly late for fans on the East Coast (10:15 p.m. ET) and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPNU.
San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
New Mexico is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 10.5 points. The Aztecs are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +315. Should one team can get out in front early it’ll produce a worthwhile in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50 points.
The opening line was 11. The game’s O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 50.
The Aztecs have recorded 5.3 units so far in 2018 and are 2-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-6. The Lobos have lost 2.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-5 ATS and the over has hit in five of their games.
The Aztecs are 6-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Lobos are 3-5 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs are hoping to bounce back after a 28-24 defeat to Nevada last week in which Ryan Agnew completed just 20 passes on 41 attempts for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Chase Jasmin (85 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Chance Bell (78 yards on 15 carries) mounted the ground attack while Kahale Warring (six receptions, 95 yards, two TDs) and Jasmin (three catches, 14 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
New Mexico just suffered a brutal 61-19 defeat to Utah State. As a group, the team collectively completed 18-of-37 passes for 220 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Sheriron Jones went 10-for-25 for 110 yards and three interceptions while Coltin Gerhart was eight-of-12 for 110 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Tyrone Owens (38 rushing yards on 12 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Aaron Molina (three receptions, 49 yards) and Elijah Lilly (three catches, 31 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
San Diego State has run the ball on 65.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 61.7 percent. The Aztecs have run for 176 yards per game (including 155 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are putting up 176 rushing yards per game (151 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then the Aztecs should have the advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their backfield has logged 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 2.4 to opponents. The Lobos have registered 4.0 yards per carry and allowed 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Aztecs offense has averaged 173 yards through the air overall (174 per game against conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Lobos have produced 220 pass yards per game (191.8 against MWC competition) and have 19 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, San Diego State should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 81 rush yards and 225 pass yards per game. The New Mexico defense has allowed 303.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 171.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.76 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have given up a 7.39 ANY/A.
Offensively, Agnew has put up 1,073 passing yards on the year, and has completed 72-of-144 attempts with seven scores through the air and four interceptions. He has a 6.04 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.61 over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Sheriron Jones has completed 72-of-130 passes for 1,065 yards, 12 TDs and nine INTs. Jones’ ANY/A stands at 6.12 for the season and 1.28 across his last two games.
When these two programs faced each other a year ago, San Diego State won soundly 35-10.
RELATED: Week 10 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs vs. New Mexico Lobos
SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Over/Under for San Diego State’s last game was set at 46.5. The over cashed in the team’s 28-24 defeat to Nevada.
As a team, San Diego State has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.6 over its last two.
New Mexico has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.5 over its past two.
New Mexico has lost six fumbles this season while San Diego State has lost seven.
Over its last three contests, San Diego State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for New Mexico’s last match was set at 64. The over cashed in the 61-19 loss to Utah State.
Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
New Mexico has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 36-point victory over UNLV on October 6th representing the lone win over that span.
The Aztecs offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have accounted for seven such plays.
The San Diego State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up nine such plays.
The San Diego State offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Mexico has created nine such runs.
The Aztecs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lobos have given up six such runs.
The New Mexico defensive unit has notched 17 sacks on the year while San Diego State has 13.
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