In a battle of two teams that like running the football, Horned Frogs of TCU (-8) are set to welcome their in-conference counterpart Kansas State Wildcats to Amon G. Carter Stadium. This Saturday daytime game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FS1.
Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
Kansas State is a live dog and is currently getting 8 points in this Saturday Big 12 game. The Wildcats are also receiving +260 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are -340. There should be some decent in-game betting scenarios for this matchup, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
This game’s line opened at -8, while the over/under hasn’t moved since it opened at 48.
The Wildcats have lost 0.3 units so far in 2018 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-5. The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 11.2 units. They’re 1-6-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-4.
The Wildcats are 3-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Horned Frogs are 3-5 SU overall and are also 1-4 SU in conference play.
The Wildcats will look to bounce back after a 51-14 defeat to Oklahoma last week. The defense allowed the Sooners to pass for 380 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 322 yards and three scores. CeeDee Lamb was unmatched for the Sooners in that one with 160 yards and two touchdowns on four catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Skylar Thompson completed 13-of-21 passes for just 108 yards. Alex Barnes (only 28 yards on 13 rushes) and Justin Silmon (51 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the running attack while Dalton Schoen (four receptions, 47 yards) and Malik Knowles (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
TCU narrowly fell 27-26 to Kansas. The team’s allowed the Jayhawks to pass for 249 yards and rush for 58 more. Pooka Williams Jr. had a good showing for Kansas, recording 33 rushing yards on 11 attempts, along with 102 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. For TCU, Michael Collins completed 23-of-33 passes for 351 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Darius Anderson (95 yards on 20 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Collins (33 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) led the running game as Jalen Reagor (eight receptions, 177 yards, one TD) and Taye Barber (five catches, 75 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Kansas State has run the ball on 62.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while TCU has a rush percentage of 52.2 percent. The Wildcats have produced 185 rush yards per game (including 189 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are logging 165 rush yards per game (129 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Horned Frogs may have the more disruptive lines up front, as their offensive line has allowed only eight sacks while their D-line has registered 20 sacks. The Wildcats O-line has allowed 22 sacks and their defense has recorded only 11 sacks.
The Wildcats offense has averaged 158 yards in the air overall (145 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have put up 243 pass yards per outing (243.4 against Big 12 foes) and have 13 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Kansas State has allowed 192 rush yards and 252 pass yards per game. The TCU defense has given up 194.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Wildcats have given up an ANY/A of 6.03 to opposing QBs, while the Horned Frogs are yielding an ANY/A of 6.14.
Offensively, Thompson is up to 858 passing yards this season, and has connected on 57 percent of his 131 attempts with five passing scores and three interceptions. He’s got a 5.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.91 over the last two games.
Michael Collins has completed 29-of-47 passes for 456 yards, two TDs and one INT for TCU. His ANY/A stands at 9.25 for the season and 8.69 over his past two outings.
These two teams met a year ago with the final outcome being a 26-6 victory for TCU.
RELATED: Week 10 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs
SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The O/U for Kansas State’s last game was 66. The under cashed in the team’s 51-14 loss to Oklahoma.
As a team, Kansas State has produced 6.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.
TCU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its past two.
Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.
Over its last three games, Kansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for TCU’s last matchup going into it was 47. The over cashed in the 27-26 loss to Kansas.
Over its last three contests, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
TCU has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a three-point triumph over Iowa State on September 29th representing the lone win over that span.
The Wildcats offense has registered three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have put up nine such plays.
The Kansas State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up seven such plays.
The Kansas State offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created three such runs.
The Wildcats defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have given up eight such runs.
The TCU defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this season. Kansas State has registered just 11 sacks.
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