The Utah Jazz (4-5) welcome the league leading Toronto Raptors (9-1) to Vivint Smart Home Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, November 5, 2018.
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz Free Prediction
The Raptors will be hoping for similar success after covering the 9.5-point spread against the Los Angeles Lakers in their last outing, 121-107. The total points for the game (228) came in just over the O/U total of 226.5. The Raptors, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.4, had a superb mark of 28.9 and had a turnover percentage of 9.6 (better than their season average of 11.5). With 34 points on 15-for-17 shooting, Serge Ibaka was the game’s high scorer.
In the Jazz’s last game, they fell to the Denver Nuggets, 103-88. They failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (191) came in well under the projected point total of 210. Denver’s 0.548 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Utah, who had a mark of 0.444. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.510, while the Jazz’s was below their season average of 0.543. With 12 points and 12 rebounds, Rudy Gobert had a good performance for Utah.
These two teams split two games last season. In the most recent contest, the Jazz won 97-93. Utah did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (15-21; 71.4 percent). Toronto, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.2 vs. 21.7).
Toronto has a superb 9-1 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 4-5 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers tend to set the total low when the Raptors are involved, as 77.8 percent of their contests have ended over the total.
Meanwhile, Utah is 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS. Jazz games also have typically finished over the total (66.7 percent).
Ibaka and Pascal Siakam have played at a high level over the last five games for Toronto. Ibaka has averaged 17.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Siakam has recorded 13.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals a game during that span.
The aggressive Utah offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this contest. Dating back to last season, the Jazz rank second in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.206, while Toronto has been among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 14th-ranked FTA rate of 0.211). Moreover, the Raptors rank fifth in turnover percentage (12.8 percent), while the Jazz rank 21st in opponents’ turnover percentage (14.4 percent).
Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Utah is 38-8 when they allow less than 100 points, while Toronto is 31-5.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Jazz are 47-17 and the Raptors are 66-20.
Toronto ranks second in steals allowed per game (7.1) while Utah ranks 25th (8.4).
The Jazz rank third in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while the Raptors rank 25th (12.3).
Utah ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while Toronto ranks 20th (42.4).
The Jazz rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.8) while the Raptors rank 20th (25.6).
Toronto ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3) while Utah ranks 20th (42.2).
The Raptors average 16.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Jazz rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
Utah averages 11.7 second chance points per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Toronto ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.0).
The Raptors rank third in assists per game (24.3) while the Jazz rank 15th (22.3).
Toronto ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.1) while Utah ranks 12th (5.1).
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