With the Atlanta Falcons in a turnover-fueled quasi-meltdown Thursday, it made me think we might be on the verge of losing multiple undefeated teams this week. Not only that, the lone winless team in the league has its best chance to get a win.
Turnovers doomed the Falcons Thursday night, knocking them out of three different scoring opportunities that would have more than made the difference in their 31-21 loss to the Saints. Both Matt Ryan and Drew Brees probably led some fantasy teams to early victories and Devonte Freeman is easily the best fantasy waiver wire pick up of the season. Saints tight end Benjamin Watson had a break out game that my money says he won’t soon repeat.
On to the picks. I’ll toss in the survivor pool picks as I go.
Byes:
Early Games
Washington at New York Jets (-6.5)
How good are the Jets? How bad are the Redskins? I don’t think any of us knows. Frankly, you could switch those questions around and it wouldn’t make a difference. That spread looks a little high on the outside, but the idea of Kirk Cousins tossing passes against Derrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie has got to be worth a touchdown alone. Jets 24, Redskins 13 (survivor pool pick)
Arizona at Pittsburgh (+3.5)
The Steelers used up all the luck, nojo, monkeys paws, magic lamps, rabbit feet and whatever dark totems they had on hand to pull that win last week out of an orifice. I don’t think the Cardinals will be susceptible to that kind of dark energy. Cardinals 27, Steelers 16 (survivor pool pick)
Kansas City at Minnesota (-3.5)
The Vikings come off a bye and a tough loss to play a Chiefs team without its best player and but with its worst coach. Minnesota has become sneakily dangerous and while the preseason playoff bandwagon hasn’t refilled, they’ve got the wheel fixed and the horses are still there. Vikings 17, Chiefs 14
Cincinnati at Buffalo (+3)
Its a trap. I’m going against all of my instincts in picking the Bengals, because I can see them losing this game after their recent killer gauntlet. And it wouldn’t be a bad loss. The Bills are a potential playoff team and they’re playing at home. They have some quarterback insecurity, but I’m not sure E.J. Manuel isn’t the better guy. I’m still going with the Bengals. Bengals 34, Bills 16
Chicago at Lions (-3)
It’s time. We all know it. It’s too much to hope for to get a return to that 2008 dream season where the Detroit Lions made history become the official worst team in NFL history. To put that 0-16 record into perspective, you have to really think about what it took to get there. You can’t compare the 0-26 record the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put down in their first two seasons in the league simply because the rules were different then. There wasn’t free agency. There wasn’t a salary cap. That Bucs team was built from an expansion draft, the NFL draft and other teams’ castoffs and disasters. What the Lions did in 2008 in this modern age should be impossible. Fielding a roster of 53 actual NFL players acquired through the draft and free agency in open salary cap-enforced competition with all 31 other NFL teams, for Detroit to lose every single game took an effort no team is willing to give these days. Especially not these Lions. More the pity for all of us. Lions 19, Bears 17
Denver at Cleveland (+4)
It’s a trap part 2 and if Johnny Manziel makes an appearance, it may be sprung. But I don’t see Josh McCown doing anything but getting clobbered by the Broncos’ defense. Peyton Manning doesn’t have to do much to keep these Broncos perfect and he probably won’t. Broncos 23, Browns 20 (survivor pool pick)
Houston at Jacksonville (-1.5)
I had to double check that line after coming up on this game. My guess is this is the first game in which the Jaguars have been favored in two seasons and I’m not going to even bother looking it up. It’s funny how a feature on Hard Knocks can fool you into thinking a team might be decent. Those NFL Films people really do work magic. Texans 19, Jaguars 17
Miami at Tennessee (-1.5)
I keep hearing how Dan Campbell is going to give a new energy to this lethargic Miami team. That’s fine, but will be play quarterback? Or linebacker? The Marcus Mariota rookie of the year campaign continues. Titans 27, Dolphins 16
Late Games
Carolina at Seattle (-7)
The Panthers are exactly the kind of team that can shut the door on Seattle’s postseason plans early, but I don’t buy it. Time for that glass slipper to break and put somebody’s eye out, Carolina. Seahawks 31, Panthers 17 (survivor pool pick)
San Diego at Green Bay (-10.5)
That line is a smack in the face that the Chargers richly deserve. It’s hard to see this San Diego team that has performed so below expectations at this point in the season to suddenly turn it around at Lambeau Field against the best team in the NFL. Packers 31, Chargers 21
Baltimore at San Francisco (+2)
Man, nothing could help rouse the Ravens better than a trip to San Francisco, the team they beat in their last Super Bowl that just so happened to have fired their own head coach’s brother. Any Ravens’ defensive back with some contract incentives at stake should be ready to reach some clauses with Colin Kaepernick throwing them the ball for three hours. Ravens 38, 49ers 20 (survivor pool pick)
Sunday Night
New England at Indianapolis (+9)
Here’s what strikes me about this game and maybe I’m the only one that’s seeing it. There seems to be an idea that the Patriots owe the Colts, a team they trounced in the AFC Championship, some kind of revenge over DeflateGate. But here’s the thing. The Pats were guilty. Tom Brady is guilty, regardless of how stupid a federal judge is or how badly Roger Goodell does his job. They were cheating and got caught and the desire to seek revenge against a team that you were cheating against demonstrates the kind of hubris that convinces me that evolution didn’t give me enough fists to punch all the faces that need it. The Colts need to win this game because, by God, justice needs to win this game. Colts 27, Patriots 24
Monday Night
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-5)
The Giants are already in control of the NFC East, but to keep it they need to win games like this. Plus, the University of Southern California needs its head coach situation solved as soon as possible. Take care of them, Eli. Giants 34, Eagles 30
This Week
Straight up: 0-1
Against the spread: 0-1
Last Week
Straight up: 7-7
Against the spread: 7-7
Survivor pool picks: 4-1
Overall
Straight up: 43-34
Against the spread: 43-34
Survivor pool picks: 17-5
