A couple of schools that like to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Jason Candle and the Toledo Rockets (+3) are gearing up to take on their MAC counterpart Northern Illinois Huskies (-3) at Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium. The game will start at 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.
Toledo Rockets vs. Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview
Toledo is a live dog and is currently getting 3 points in this Wednesday MAC game. The Rockets are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Huskies are -155. This MAC matchup should provide several decent in-game betting possibilities, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.
Sharp bettors have been hammering both the Huskies and the over. The opening line was initially set at -2 and the over/under was originally only 53.5.
The Rockets have lost 2.3 units so far and are 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 5-3. The surprising Huskies are up 4.8 units this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-7.
The Rockets are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against conference opponents. The Huskies are 6-3 SU overall and 5-0 SU in conference play.
The Rockets are coming off a resounding 45-13 win over Ball State last week in which Eli Peters completed 25 passes on 34 attempts for 327 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Bryant Koback (78 yards on 15 rushes, two TDs) and Art Thompkins (84 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Cody Thompson (six receptions, 75 yards, one TD) and Diontae Johnson (five catches, 100 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Northern Illinois just earned a 36-26 win over Akron. Marcus Childers completed 21-of-28 passes for 188 yards and one touchdown. Tre Harbison (169 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Jones (82 yards on 15 carries) handled the running game while Jones (four receptions, 21 yards) and Jauan Wesley (three catches, 50 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Toledo has run the ball on 58.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Northern Illinois has a rush percentage of 59.8. Having said that, the Rockets have rushed for 204 yards per game (including 229 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 19 scores on the ground this year. The Huskies haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re averaging 167 rushing yards per game (239 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
The Rockets offense has logged 236 yards per contest through the air overall (208 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Huskies have put up 139 pass yards per outing (140.2 in the MAC) and have nine total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Toledo has allowed 177 rush yards and 283 pass yards per game. The Northern Illinois defense has given up 243.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 103.8 yards per game on the ground. The Huskies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.46 to opponents, while the Rockets have given up a 6.45 ANY/A.
Offensively, Peters has put up 891 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 53 percent of his 122 attempts with eight passing scores and six interceptions. He has a 5.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.38 over the last two games.
We’re looking for Rockets to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Diontae Johnson (534 yards, six TDs), Bryant Koback (413 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Art Thompkins (270 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Toledo offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Marcus Childers has completed 139-of-242 passes for 1,137 yards, nine TDs and five INTs. Childers’ ANY/A sits at a horrendous 3.39 for the season and 5.05 over his last two outings.
The Huskies should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Along with Jauan Wesley (369 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Tre Harbison (611 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Marcus Jones (364 rush yards, two rush TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.
When these two teams faced one another last year, Toledo earned the win 27-17.
NCAA Tip: Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies
SU Winner – Toledo, ATS Winner – Toledo, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The O/U for Toledo’s last game was 64. The under cashed in the team’s 45-13 victory over Ball State.
Toledo has averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 6.5 over its last two.
Northern Illinois has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 4.0 over its last two.
Northern Illinois has lost four fumbles this season while Toledo has let three get away.
Over its last three games, Toledo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Northern Illinois’ last game going into it was 37. The over cashed in the 36-26 victory over Akron.
Over its last three matches, Northern Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Rockets offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Huskies have put up one such play.
The Toledo defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northern Illinois has given up eight such plays.
The Toledo offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Northern Illinois has created nine such runs.
The Rockets defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Huskies have given up three such runs.
The Northern Illinois defense has sacked opposing QBs 32 times this year. Toledo has recorded just 22 sacks.
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