The No. 16 Fresno State Bulldogs (-3) are heading east to face their MWC counterpart Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. ESPN2 has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
In this Friday Mountain West game, Fresno State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +135. Some solid live betting opportunities should present themselves during this showdown, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points.
The under is receiving the bulk of the recent sharp action. The game’s over/under was initially set at 55.
The profitable Bulldogs are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.9 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 2-6. The Broncos have lost 1.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4-1 ATS and five of their games have gone over the total.
The Bulldogs have gone 8-1 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Broncos are 7-2 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs hope to keep things rolling following a 48-3 win over UNLV last week where Marcus McMaryion completed 26-of-35 passes for 274 yards, two scores and one interception. Ronnie Rivers (33 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. KeeSean Johnson (eight receptions, 97 yards) and Michiah Quick (five catches, 49 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Boise State just got a 21-16 win over BYU. Brett Rypien completed 23-of-35 passes for 214 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Alexander Mattison (89 yards on 25 rush attempts, two TDs) led the running game while Mattison (five receptions, 40 yards) and A.J. Richardson (four catches, 53 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Fresno State’s run the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Boise State has a rush percentage of 49.6 percent. The Bulldogs have rushed for 151 yards per game (including 139 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 23 scores on the ground this year. The Broncos are averaging 150 rushing yards per game (138 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
The Bulldogs offense has averaged 281 yards in the air overall (286 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have put up 319 pass yards per outing (310.6 in the MWC) and have 25 total pass scores.
Fresno State seems to hold an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 129 yards and throw for 178 yards per game. The Boise State defense has given up 234.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.26 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have given up a 6.59 ANY/A.
Offensively, McMaryion is up to 2,132 passing yards this year. He’s completed 176-of-247 attempts with 16 scores through the air and only three interceptions. McMaryion’s got a sparkling 9.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.59 over the last two games.
We expect the Fresno State offense to mix it up in this one. KeeSean Johnson, Ronnie Rivers and Jared Rice have combined to account for 497 total yards and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the home locker room, Brett Rypien has managed to complete 202-of-294 passes for 2,380 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs. Rypien’s ANY/A stands at 7.54 for the season and 9.11 over his last two games.
Alexander Mattison, John Hightower and Sean Modster have collectively accounted for 574 total yards and six touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.
Betting Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The O/U for Fresno State’s previous game was set at 59.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 victory over UNLV.
Fresno State has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its past three outings and 6.1 over its last two.
Boise State has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.3 over its past two.
Boise State has lost four fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost three.
In its last three games, Fresno State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Boise State’s previous outing was set at 52.5. The under cashed in the 21-16 victory over BYU.
Over its last three matchups, Boise State is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Bulldogs offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have put up 10 such plays.
The Fresno State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Boise State has given up eight such plays.
The Fresno State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Boise State has created 10 such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up 10 such runs.
The Boise State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times this season. Fresno State has recorded just 16 sacks.
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