The No. 1 Crimson Tide (-25) are gearing up to welcome the No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs to Alabama. CBS has the TV rights and this key SEC game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Mississippi State is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving 25 points from oddsmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points. If one team can find paydirt early, it’ll likely produce a worthy live betting opportunity.
The opening line was -24. The game’s total has yet to change after being initially set at 51.5.
The Bulldogs are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.7 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 1-7. The Crimson Tide have gained 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-3.
The flawless Bulldogs are 6-3 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against conference opponents. The Crimson Tide are 9-0 SU overall and 6-0 SU in conference play.
When these two schools met last year, Alabama knocked off Mississippi State by a touchdown 31-24.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 45-3 victory over Louisiana Tech last week. Nick Fitzgerald completed 17 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Fitzgerald (107 rushing yards on 18 attempts) also led the running attack. Hill (five receptions, 38 yards, one TD) and Deddrick Thomas (three catches, 70 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Alabama is coming off of a 29-0 win over LSU. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25-of-42 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Damien Harris (107 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and Najee Harris (83 yards on six carries) spearheaded the running game while Jerry Jeudy (eight receptions, 103 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (four catches, 44 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each of these squads sports a remarkably similar (59-41) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bulldogs have rushed for 231 yards/game (including 171 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 19 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tide are averaging 224 rush yards per game (208 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.
The Bulldogs offense has logged 187 yards/game in the air overall (122 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Tide have put up a superb 342 pass yards per game (352.7 in the SEC) and have 33 total pass TDs.
Mississippi State seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 111 yards and throw for 167 yards per game. The Alabama D has allowed 193.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 102.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bulldogs have given up an ANY/A of 3.46 to opposing QBs, while the Tide are allowing an ANY/A of 3.64.
Offensively, Fitzgerald has amassed 1,011 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 49 percent of his 175 attempts with eight passing scores and seven interceptions. Fitzgerald has a 3.96 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.00 over the past two games.
Look for Fitzgerald to distribute the football early and often in this one. Nick Fitzgerald (347 receiving yards), Stephen Guidry (207 yards, two TDs) and Osirus Mitchell (347 yards, three TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.
In the other huddle, Tua Tagovailoa has connected on 113-of-165 passes for 2,055 yards, 23 TDs and one INT. Tagovailoa’s ANY/A sits at 14.44 for the year and 9.32 across his past two outings.
Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Damien Harris have combined to account for 472 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.
NCAA Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Alabama defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times this year. Mississippi State has registered just 23 sacks.
The Alabama offense has lost four fumbles this season while the Mississippi State offense has yet to lose any.
The Bulldogs offense has created four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Crimson Tide have accounted for 17 such plays.
Both teams have allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Mississippi State defense has given up five pass plays of 30+ yards while Alabama has given up six such plays.
The Mississippi State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Alabama has created 15 such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have given up nine such runs.
The Over/Under for Alabama’s last outing was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the 29-0 win over LSU.
Over its last three matchups, Alabama is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three games, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Mississippi State’s last game was set at 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-3 victory over Louisiana Tech.
Mississippi State has rushed for 6.1 yards per attempt over its last three games and 6.4 over its last two.
Alabama has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.3 over its past two.
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