In a collision of two schools that prefer to keep the ball on the ground, Eagles of Georgia Southern (-1) are prepared to welcome their SBC counterpart Troy Trojans to Allen E. Paulson Stadium. This vital daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can view the action live on ESPN+.
Troy Trojans vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Georgia Southern is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 1 point. The Trojans are also receiving -105 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -115. There should be multiple good live betting scenarios for this game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
The game’s over/under was initially set at 51, but sharp bettors tend to be siding with the under.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Trojans have gained 2.9 units while the Eagles are ahead 5.3 units.
The Trojans have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against SBC opponents. The Eagles are 7-2 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
The Trojans are coming off a 26-16 win over Louisiana last week. Sawyer Smith completed 18-of-22 passes for 317 yards and one touchdown. B.J. Smith (103 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Damion Willis (10 receptions, 213 yards, one TD) and Daughtry-Frye (two catches, 31 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Georgia Southern just suffered a brutal 44-25 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Shai Werts completed eight-of-15 passes for 78 yards and one touchdown. Wesley Fields (73 yards on 17 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Werts (three yards on 12 carries) mounted the running attack as Davarius Bargnare (three receptions, 23 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Troy’s run the ball on 58.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has a rush percentage of 86.7 percent. The Trojans have run for 202 yards/game (including 225 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Eagles are totaling 260 rush yards per game (244 in conference) and have 25 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Trojans may hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Eagles have tallied 5.1 yards per carry and allowed 4.3 YPC to opponents.
The Trojans offense has tallied 213 yards/game through the air overall (241 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Eagles have put up 74 pass yards per contest (69.2 in the SBC) and have six total pass TDs.
Defensively, Troy has allowed opponents to run for an average of 127 yards and pass for 235 yards per game. The Georgia Southern defense has allowed 223.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 158.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Trojans have given up an ANY/A of 5.23 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles are allowing an ANY/A of 4.76.
Offensively, Smith has put up 665 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 65 percent of his 81 attempts with five passing scores and three interceptions. Smith’s got a 6.78 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.87 over the past two games.
Damion Willis, B.J. Smith and Deondre Douglas have combined for 712 total yards and six touchdowns over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Shai Werts has completed 38-of-66 passes for 569 yards, five TDs and zero INTs. Werts’ ANY/A sits at 7.23 for the season and 6.35 over his last two games.
We also expect the Georgia Southern offense to mix it up this Saturday. Wesley Fields, Shai Werts and Darion Anderson have combined to account for 370 total yards and four touchdowns as a trio the last two games.
When these two programs faced each other a year ago, Troy knocked Georgia Southern off easily 38-16.
NCAA Pick: Troy Trojans vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
SU Winner – Troy, ATS Winner – Troy, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Troy defense has 31 sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has just 20.
The Georgia Southern offense has lost four fumbles this season while Troy has lost nine.
The Trojans offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Eagles have put up five such plays.
The Troy defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Georgia Southern has given up six such plays.
The Troy offense has created 22 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Georgia Southern has created 20 such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Eagles have given up nine such runs.
The Over/Under for Georgia Southern’s previous matchup was set at 60.5. The over cashed in the 44-25 defeat to Louisiana-Monroe.
In its last three matches, Georgia Southern is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
In its last three matchups, Troy is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Troy has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a six-point loss to Liberty on October 13th representing the only defeat over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Troy’s last game was set at 64. The under cashed in the team’s 26-16 win over Louisiana.
Troy has rushed for 4.3 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
Georgia Southern has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
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