The Baylor Bears (+15) are set to pay a visit to the No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones (-15) at Jack Trice Stadium. FS1 has the TV rights and the game’s scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big 12 game, Iowa State has been projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 15 points. The Bears are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Cyclones are -750. Should one side can find paydirt early on it would generate a nice live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.
Each team has rewarded gamblers this season as the Bears have gained 1.6 units while the Cyclones are ahead 4.8 units.
The Bears have gone 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against conference opponents. The Cyclones are 5-3 SU overall and are also 4-2 SU in conference play.
These two squads faced off last year with the final outcome being a 23-13 victory for Iowa State.
The Bears enter after a 35-31 victory over Oklahoma State last week. the Bears completed 14-of-26 passes for 158 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jalan McClendon went 10-for-17 for 102 yards and one interception while Charlie Brewer completed four-of-eight for 56 yards and two touchdowns. Jalen Hurd (27 rushing yards on nine attempts) spearheaded the ground attack. Hurd (seven receptions, 96 yards, one TD) and Trestan Ebner (two catches, 14 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
The Iowa State Cyclones just earned a lopsided 27-3 win over Kansas. The defense allowed the Jayhawks to run for 147 yards on 40 rush attempts. Pooka Williams Jr. had a good showing in the defeat, recording 58 rushing yards on 17 attempts, along with 42 yards on six catches for Kansas. For Iowa State, Brock Purdy completed 16-of-23 passes for 263 yards and three touchdowns. David Montgomery (64 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and the signal-caller Purdy (27 yards on 10 carries) led the running game as Hakeem Butler (five receptions, 164 yards, two TDs) and Deshaunte Jones (four catches, 31 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Baylor has run the ball on 49.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Iowa State has a rush percentage of 55.9 percent. The Bears have run for 162 yards/game (including 157 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Cyclones are logging 129 rush yards per game (147 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Cyclones should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded only 18 sacks while the D-line has logged 23 sacks. The Bears offensive line has allowed 28 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss just 19 times.
The Bears offensive scheme has averaged 284 yards in the air overall (262 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Cyclones have recorded 243 pass yards per contest (256.8 in the Big 12) and have 16 total pass scores.
Baylor has allowed opponents to run for an average of 190 yards and pass for 248 yards per game. The Iowa State D has allowed 219.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 104.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Cyclones are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.19 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have allowed a 7.27 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, McClendon is up to 461 yards this season, and has connected on 63 percent of his 57 attempts with three scores through the air and two interceptions. McClendon’s got a 6.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.00 over the past two games.
We’re looking for Bears to control the clock by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. In addition to wideout Jalen Hurd (718 receiving yards and four touchdowns), John Lovett (358 rush yards, four rush TDs) and JaMycal Hasty (324 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) have delivered in the offensive scheme for Baylor.
Brock Purdy has connected on 52-of-71 passes for 835 yards, 10 TDs and two INTs for Iowa State. His ANY/A sits at 11.86 for the season and 10.14 over his last two games.
The Cyclones will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Hakeem Butler (643 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs), David Montgomery (587 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Tarique Milton (229 receiving yards and one TD) have seen a multitude of looks lately.
Free Pick: Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones
SU Winner – Iowa State, ATS Winner – Iowa State, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Over/Under for Baylor’s last game was 68.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-31 victory over Oklahoma State.
As a team, Baylor has averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt across its past three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
Iowa State has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.3 over its last two.
Iowa State has lost six fumbles this season while Baylor has lost four.
In its last three games, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Iowa State’s last matchup was 47. The under cashed in the 27-3 victory over Kansas.
Over its last three contests, Iowa State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Bears offense has produced four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Cyclones have accounted for 10 such plays.
The Baylor defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Iowa State has given up four such plays.
Both teams have produced nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Baylor offense has recorded 54 running plays of 10+ yards while Iowa State has accounted for 40 such plays.
The Bears defense has allowed 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cyclones have given up six such runs.
The Iowa State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this season. Baylor has recorded 19 sacks.
+++++
