In a display of two teams that like to run the football, Scarlet Knights of Rutgers (-40) are set to welcome the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines to HighPoint.com Stadium. Kickoff for this Big 10 showdown is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and BTN will televise the action.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview
Michigan is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 40 points to Rutgers. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 49 points. If one school gets out in front early, it would likely produce a worthy live betting opportunity.
Since the game’s over/under was set originally at 48, the sharp action is siding with the over.
The profitable Wolverines have gained 4.5 units so far in 2018 and are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under mark of 4-4-1. The Scarlet Knights have lost 4.2 units this season. The team is 4-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-6.
The Wolverines are 8-1 straight up (SU), including 6-0 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play.
These two programs met a year ago with the final outcome being a 35-14 win for Michigan.
Rutgers comes into this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Michigan has lost zero in a row. The Wolverines are coming off a resounding 42-7 win over Penn State last week where Shea Patterson completed 11-of-17 passes for only 144 yards and two touchdowns. Karan Higdon (132 yards on 20 rushes, one TD) and Chris Evans (57 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Donovan Peoples-Jones (three receptions, 38 yards, one TD) and Evans (three catches, 30 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Wisconsin knocked off this Rutgers crew by a score of 31-17. Artur Sitkowski completed 20-of-39 passes for 261 yards and one touchdown. Raheem Blackshear contributed all over the place in the loss. Along with 38 rushing yards on 10 attempts, Blackshear also reeled in eight catches for 162 yards and a score.
Michigan has run the ball on 64.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Rutgers has an overall rush percentage of 50.1 percent. The Wolverines have produced 218 rush yards/game (including 233 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 20 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Scarlet Knights are logging 124 rush yards per game (106 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
Based on the results this season, it appears the Wolverines might hold an advantage in terms of RB efficiency, since their running backs has produced 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Scarlet Knights have rushed for 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.6 to opponents.
The Wolverines offensive scheme has logged 201 yards/contest through the air overall (196 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Scarlet Knights have produced 152 pass yards per contest (145.8 against Big 10 foes) and have four total pass scores.
Michigan appears to have an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 94 yards and pass for 122 yards per game. The Rutgers D has allowed 180.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 234.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.45 to opposing QBs, while the Scarlet Knights have given up a 6.03 ANY/A.
Offensively, Patterson is up to 1,455 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 69 percent of his 175 attempts with 12 passing scores and only three interceptions. Patterson’s got a sparkling 7.90 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.31 over the last two games.
We’re expecting the Wolverines to control the clock by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Donovan Peoples-Jones (285 yards, six TDs), Karan Higdon (819 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Chris Evans (247 rush yards, three rush TDs, 78 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the Michigan offensive scheme.
Artur Sitkowski has completed 108-of-216 passes for 1,019 yards, four TDs and 15 INTs for Rutgers. His ANY/A stands at a minuscule 1.68 for the season and 4.79 across his last two outings.
The Scarlet Knights should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Travis Vokolek (101 receiving yards, one TD) has gotten involved lately, but Raheem Blackshear (414 rush yards, two rush TDs, 308 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Isaih Pacheco (242 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen a multitude of looks lately.
RELATED: Week 11 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
SU Winner – Rutgers, ATS Winner – Rutgers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Michigan defense has more than twice as many sacks as Rutgers this year (29 versus 13).
The Rutgers offense has lost four fumbles this season while Michigan has lost three.
The Wolverines offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Scarlet Knights have accounted for two such plays.
The Michigan defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Rutgers has given up five such plays.
The Michigan offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Rutgers has created six such runs.
The Wolverines defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Scarlet Knights have given up 26 such runs.
The O/U for Rutgers’ last match was set at 52.5. The under cashed in the 31-17 defeat to Wisconsin.
In its last three contests, Rutgers is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matchups, Michigan is 3-0 ATS.
The O/U for Michigan’s previous game was set at 49. The O/U pushed in the team’s 42-7 triumph over Penn State.
Michigan has rushed for 5.0 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 4.2 over its last two.
Rutgers has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.4 over its past two.
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