In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to run the football, Coach Tony Sanchez and the UNLV Rebels (+22) are facing off against their conference foe San Diego State Aztecs at SDCCU Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action live on ESPN2.
UNLV Rebels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
San Diego State is the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 22 points to UNLV. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 55 points, and it appears that there might be multiple decent in-game betting opportunities in this showdown.
The original odds have changed, as the opening line was -18. The game’s total has not moved after being initially posted at 55.
The underwhelming Rebels are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 6.8 units so far. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 6-2. The Aztecs have gained 6.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-6.
The Rebels have gone a paltry 2-7 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against MWC opponents. The Aztecs are 7-2 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
The Rebels might be waving the white flag after a 45-point defeat to Fresno State last week. the Rebels completed 15-of-35 passes for 105 yards and one interception. Max Gilliam went 14-for-30 for 98 yards and one interception while Kenyon Oblad completed one-of-five for seven yards. Charles Williams (121 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Lexington Thomas (43 yards on 14 carries) provided the ground attack while Brandon Presley (four receptions, 48 yards) and Thomas (three catches, 16 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
San Diego State takes the field on Saturday after just earning a 31-23 win over New Mexico. As a group, the Aztecs collectively completed 17-of-25 passes for 240 yards and one touchdown. Christian Chapman went 13-for-19 for 182 yards and one touchdown while Ryan Agnew was four-of-six for 58 yards. Chase Jasmin (40 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Juwan Washington (95 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the running game while Kahale Warring (five receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Tim Wilson Jr. (three catches, 63 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
UNLV has run the ball on 59.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has an overall rush percentage of 64.7 percent. The Rebels have rushed for 227 yards/game (including 140 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aztecs are logging 175 rush yards per game (156 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
The Rebels offense has tallied 166 yards per contest through the air overall (225 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Aztecs have produced 180 pass yards per outing (187.0 in the MWC) and have eight total pass scores.
UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 211 yards and pass for 257 yards per game. The San Diego State defense has given up 204.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 83.1 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.29 to opponents, while the Rebels have given up a whopping 9.13 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gilliam has put up 732 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 53 percent of his 140 attempts with eight passing scores and four interceptions. Gilliam’s got a 3.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.59 over the last two outings.
Tyleek Collins, Lexington Thomas and Brandon Presley have collectively accounted for 502 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Ryan Agnew has connected on 63-of-120 passes for 934 yards, four TDs and four INTs for San Diego State. His ANY/A stands at 5.48 for the season and 7.68 across his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Aztecs to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to Kahale Warring (193 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Chase Jasmin (500 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Chance Bell (104 rush yards) have been significant focal points in the San Diego State offense.
When these two programs faced one another a year ago, San Diego State knocked UNLV off soundly 41-10.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: UNLV Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs
SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – UNLV, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Trends
The San Diego State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 19 times this season. UNLV has registered 14 sacks.
San Diego State has lost 10 fumbles in 2018 while UNLV has lost five.
The Rebels offense has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aztecs have accounted for one such play.
Both defenses have allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more. The UNLV defense has given up 17 pass plays of 30+ yards while San Diego State has permitted 12 such plays.
The UNLV offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while San Diego State has created 17 such runs.
The Rebels defense has allowed 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Aztecs have given up two such runs.
The Over/Under for San Diego State’s last matchup was set at 45.5. The over cashed in that 31-23 win over New Mexico.
In its last three matchups, San Diego State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
San Diego State has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a -4-point defeat to Nevada on October 27th representing the only loss over that stretch.
The O/U for UNLV’s last game was set at 59.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 defeat to Fresno State.
As a team, UNLV has averaged 4.5 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
San Diego State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.4 over its past two.
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