Two teams that like to keep it on the ground, Coach Steve Campbell and the South Alabama Jaguars are getting 5.5 points as they prepare to host the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks to Ladd-Peebles Stadium. This SBC game will get going at 5:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ESPN+. When the two programs faced one another a year ago, South Alabama got the victory 33-23.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
South Alabama is a live dog and is currently getting 5.5 points in this SBC game. The Warhawks are also receiving -235 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +185. Should one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages it would create a decent live betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points.
Early action has leaned to the Warhawks, as the opening line was 4. The game’s over/under has not changed after it was initially established at 61.5.
The Warhawks have gained 4.2 units so far in 2018 and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-5. The Jaguars have lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-5-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 7-2.
The Warhawks are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 2-7 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
South Alabama comes into this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Louisiana-Monroe has lost zero in a row. The Warhawks are coming off a resounding 44-25 victory over Georgia Southern last weekTheir defense allowed the Eagles to run for 138 yards on 46 rush attempts. Wesley Fields had a good day for the Eagles in that one with 73 rushing yards on 17 attempts. On the offense, Caleb Evans completed 13-of-22 passes for 337 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Derrick Gore (114 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Evans (102 yards on 15 carries, two TDs) led the running attack. RJ Turner (four receptions, 86 yards) and Markis McCray (three catches, 57 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
One game ago, Arkansas State got the win against this South Alabama crew by a score of 38-14. The Jags defense let the Red Wolves pass for 354 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 155 yards and two scores. Justin McInnis was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 177 yards on seven catches for Arkansas State. As a group, the Jags collectively completed 12-of-23 passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Evan Orth went seven-for-15 for 63 yards and one touchdown while Cephus Johnson was five-of-eight for 30 yards and one touchdown. Tra Minter had a monster statline in the loss. In addition to 81 yards on 16 rush attempts, Minter also reeled in four catches for 9 yards.
Louisiana-Monroe’s run the ball on 51.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Alabama has an overall rush percentage of 57.8 percent. The Warhawks have rushed for 181 yards per game (including 206 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 17 scores on the ground this year. The Jags are logging 132 rush yards per game (121 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, the Warhawks ought to own the advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.7 to opponents. The Jaguars have recorded 3.4 yards per carry and given up 5.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Warhawks offensive scheme has averaged 242 yards through the air overall (222 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Jags have recorded 206 pass yards per game (211.2 against SBC foes) and have 13 total pass scores.
Louisiana-Monroe has allowed opponents to run for an average of 189 yards and throw for 264 yards per game. The South Alabama D has allowed 231.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 217.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Warhawks have given up an ANY/A of 8.12 to opposing QBs, while the Jags are yielding an ANY/A of 7.69.
Offensively, Evans has amassed 1,959 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 159-of-261 attempts with 10 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.04 over the last two games.
We expect the Louisiana-Monroe offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Marcus Green, Caleb Evans and Derrick Gore have combined to account for 575 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Evan Orth has completed 124-of-189 passes for 1,429 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for South Alabama. His ANY/A stands at 7.06 for the year and 4.20 across his past two outings.
Tra Minter (344 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 67 receiving yards this season), Jamarius Way (544 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Kawaan Baker (357 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined to account for 403 total yards and two touchdowns over the past couple of games.
Free Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars
SU Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Louisiana-Monroe defense has twice as many sacks as South Alabama this year (28 versus 14).
Both teams have lost nine fumbles this year.
The Warhawks offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jaguars have put up six such plays.
The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while South Alabama has given up 10 such plays.
The Louisiana-Monroe offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Alabama has created five such runs.
The Warhawks defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Jaguars have given up 20 such runs.
The O/U for South Alabama’s last match was set at 62. The under cashed in the 38-14 defeat to Arkansas State.
Over its last three games, South Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three contests, Louisiana-Monroe is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
South Alabama has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 38-point victory over Alabama State on October 13th representing its only win over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Louisiana-Monroe’s last game was set at 60.5. The over cashed in the team’s 44-25 victory over Georgia Southern.
As a team, Louisiana-Monroe has rushed for 5.9 yards per attempt over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
South Alabama has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.1 over its past two.
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