The California Golden Bears (+5) aren’t traveling far to take on the USC Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kickoff is fairly late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN will broadcast the action.
California Golden Bears at USC Trojans Betting Preview
This Saturday Pac-12 matchup shows the Golden Bears as the dogs and they’re currently getting 5 points. The Golden Bears are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Trojans are -220. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points, and should one team can create a bunch of points early, it would probably create a solid betting opportunity in-game.
The opening line was -6. The game’s total has not changed after it was initially established at 48.5.
The Golden Bears have recorded 0.1 units so far in 2018 and are 4-4-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 1-7. The Trojans have lost 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.
The Golden Bears are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against conference opponents. The Trojans are 5-4 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play.
When these two teams met last year, USC earned the win 30-20.
The Golden Bears are looking to bounce back after a 19-13 defeat to Washington State last week. The Golden Bears secondary allowed the Cougars to air it out for 334 yards. On the offense, the Golden Bears completed 18-of-33 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Chase Garbers went 15-for-26 for 127 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Brandon McIlwain completed three-of-seven for 52 yards and one interception. Patrick Laird (40 yards on 18 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Garbers (67 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. Vic Wharton III (four receptions, 47 yards) and Laird (four catches, 38 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
USC enters this one following a 38-21 win over Oregon State. JT Daniels completed 14-of-26 passes for 177 yards and one touchdown. Aca’Cedric Ware (205 yards on 17 rush attempts, three TDs) and Vavae Malepeai (101 yards on 15 carries) handled the running game as Amon-Ra St. Brown (five receptions, 39 yards) and Tyler Vaughns (three catches, 41 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
California has run the ball on 54.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while USC has an overall rush percentage of 51.7 percent. The Golden Bears have run for 176 yards/game (including 174 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 144 rush yards per game (155 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Golden Bears might hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Trojans have rushed for 4.3 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Golden Bears offensive scheme has averaged 206 yards in the air overall (207 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Trojans have recorded 236 pass yards per contest (217.0 in the Pac-12) and have 13 total pass TDs.
California should possess an edge in both defensive facets. The team’s let opponents rush for an average of 139 yards and throw for 184 yards per game. The USC D has allowed 229.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 158.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.84 to opponents, while the Trojans have given up a 6.23 ANY/A.
Offensively, Garbers is up to 854 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 81-of-127 attempts with 10 scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 5.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.98 over the past two games.
As a group, Patrick Laird, Vic Wharton III and Moe Ways have combined to account for 359 yards from scrimmage over the last couple of outings.
In the other locker room, Jack Sears has completed 20-of-28 passes for 235 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Sears’ ANY/A stands at 8.93 for the year.
We’re looking for the Trojans to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Tyler Vaughns (372 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Aca’Cedric Ware (563 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Vavae Malepeai (305 rush yards, seven rush TDs) have been key factors in the USC offense.
Free Pick: California Golden Bears vs. USC Trojans
SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The USC defensive unit has tallied 24 sacks on the year while California has 19.
The USC offense has lost seven fumbles this season while California has lost nine.
The Golden Bears offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Trojans have put up 12 such plays.
The California defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while USC has given up six such plays.
The California offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while USC has created 14 such runs.
The Golden Bears defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Trojans have given up 11 such runs.
The O/U for USC’s previous outing going into it was 64.5. The under cashed in the team’s 38-21 victory over Oregon State.
In its last three contests, USC is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three games, California is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for California’s last game was 52. The under cashed in the team’s 19-13 defeat to Washington State.
As a team, California has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.8 over its last two.
USC has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.2 over its past two.
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