The No. 14 Aggies (-31) are set to welcome the San Jose State Spartans to Utah State. This MWC showdown is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to STAD,FCBK.
San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
San Jose State is a heavy road dog here and is currently receiving 31 points from bookmakers. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 63 points, and should one team can find paydirt early on, it will probably create a reasonable live betting scenario.
Odds have shifted slightly from where they were originally posted. The line opened at -30 while the game’s total was placed initially at 62.5.
The Spartans are down 4.5 units so far and 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 4-4. The Aggies have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 5.0 units. They’re 8-1 ATS and the over’s hit in seven of their games.
The Spartans are a lousy 1-8 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against MWC opponents. The Aggies are 8-1 SU overall and 5-0 SU in conference play.
When these two programs met a year ago, Utah State knocked off San Jose State easily 61-10.
The Spartans came up short to Wyoming 24-9 in a game where their defense allowed the Cowboys to eat up the clock by rushing for 424 yards on 64 attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offensive side, Josh Love completed 19-of-32 passes for just 173 yards and one touchdown. Tyler Nevens (70 rushing yards on 17 attempts) led the ground attack. Josh Oliver (five receptions, 66 yards) and Nevens (four catches, 20 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Utah State just earned a 56-17 win over Hawaii. As a group, the Aggies collectively completed 19-of-24 passes for 175 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Love went 10-for-13 for 127 yards and one touchdown while Henry Colombi was nine-of-11 for 48 yards. Gerold Bright (121 yards on 16 rush attempts, three TDs) and Darwin Thompson (141 yards on 13 carries, three TDs) handled the running game as Ron’quavion Tarver (five receptions, 40 yards, one TD) and Jordan Nathan (two catches, 17 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
San Jose State has run the ball on 46.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has a rush percentage of 54.0 percent. The Spartans have rushed for 66 yards per game (including 75 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Aggies are putting up 216 rush yards per game (222 in conference) and have 31 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Aggies should hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 5.5 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Spartans have ran for 2.1 yards per carry while allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Spartans offense has logged 257 yards/game through the air overall (289 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Aggies have put up 269 pass yards per game (295.4 against MWC competition) and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Jose State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 210 yards and pass for 252 yards per game. The Utah State D has given up 213.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.07 to opponents, while the Spartans have given up a 6.68 ANY/A.
Offensively, Love has amassed 1,418 passing yards this year. He’s completed 119-of-217 attempts with nine scores through the air and six interceptions. He has a 5.25 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.58 over the last two outings.
We expect the San Jose State offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Tyler Nevens, Tre Walker and Josh Oliver have collectively accounted for 449 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the home locker room, Jordan Love has completed 147-of-227 passes for 1,737 yards, 15 TDs and four INTs. Love’s ANY/A sits at 7.78 for the year and 13.96 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Aggies will control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Ron’quavion Tarver (345 receiving yards, five TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but Darwin Thompson (676 rush yards, 12 rush TDs, 145 receiving yards) and Gerold Bright (577 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the Aggies’ recent offensive strategies.
Free Pick: San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies
SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – San Jose State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Over/Under for San Jose State’s last game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-9 defeat to Wyoming.
As a team, San Jose State has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
Utah State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 6.0 over its last two.
Utah State has lost 10 fumbles this season while San Jose State has let five get away.
Over its last three matchups, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Utah State’s previous outing was 73. The O/U pushed in the 56-17 win over Hawaii.
Over its last three matchups, Utah State is 2-1 ATS.
The Spartans offense has tallied 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have put up five such plays.
The San Jose State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Utah State has given up seven such plays.
The San Jose State offense has created three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Utah State has created 23 such runs.
The Spartans defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Aggies have given up 10 such runs.
The Utah State defense has tallied 24 sacks on the year while San Jose State has just 10.
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