A couple of schools that prefer to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Rick Stockstill and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-13) are set to take on the Utep Miners at Sun Bowl. This conference game gets going at 3:00 p.m. ET and you can witness the action live on ESPN+.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at UTEP Miners Betting Preview
In this Saturday Conference USA game, Middle Tennessee is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Blue Raiders are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Miners are +375. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 48 points. If the underdog gets ahead early, it would likely create a nice in-game betting opportunity.
This game’s total has yet to change after it was initially established at 48. Having said that, the line opened at 15 so square bettors have been hammering the Miners.
The profitable Blue Raiders are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 4.7 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-6. The Miners have lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an even O/U record of 4-4.
The Blue Raiders are 6-3 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against CUSA opponents. The Miners are 1-8 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
When these two squads met last year, Middle Tennessee knocked Middle Tennessee off easily 30-3.
The Blue Raiders are coming off a resounding 29-10 win over Western Kentucky last weekTheir defense allowed the Hilltoppers to run for 109 yards on 25 rush attempts. Jacquez Sloan had a productive day for the Hilltoppers in that one with 89 yards on four catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Brent Stockstill completed 24-of-42 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Chaton Mobley (198 yards on 25 rush attempts) led the running attack. Patrick Smith (eight receptions, 60 yards) and Ty Lee (five catches, 81 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
UTEP is coming off of a 34-26 win over Rice. The defensive secondary let the Owls air it out for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Austin Trammell was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 112 yards and two touchdowns on eight catches for Rice. For UTEP, Kai Locksley completed 13-of-21 passes for 193 yards and one interception. Quardraiz Wadley (91 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) and Treyvon Hughes (76 yards on 12 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as Warren Redix (four receptions, 63 yards) and Erik Brown (three catches, 60 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Middle Tennessee has run the ball on 52.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UTEP has an overall rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Blue Raiders have run for 141 yards per game (including 152 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Miners are putting up 138 rushing yards per game (110 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.
The Blue Raiders offense has logged 228 yards per contest through the air overall (223 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Miners have put up 170 pass yards per outing (210.2 in the CUSA) and have five total pass TDs.
Defensively, Middle Tennessee has let opponents rush for an average of 171 yards and pass for 245 yards per game. The UTEP D has given up 188.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 194.4 yards per game on the ground. The Blue Raiders are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.81 to opponents, while the Miners have allowed a 7.02 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Stockstill is up to 1,666 yards on the year, and has connected on 164-of-248 attempts with 15 passing scores and only four interceptions. Stockstill has a 6.20 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.82 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Blue Raiders to control the pace by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. The tandem of Chaton Mobley (290 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Terelle West (127 rush yards, 26 receiving yards) have really been focal points in the Middle Tennessee offensive scheme.
Kai Locksley has managed to complete 61-of-120 passes for 720 yards, two TDs and four INTs for UTEP. His ANY/A stands at a very poor 3.54 for the year and 5.79 over his last two games.
The Miners should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Warren Redix (355 receiving yards) has contributed lately, but Quardraiz Wadley (462 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Treyvon Hughes (252 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen a multitude of looks recently.
Betting Prediction: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. UTEP Miners
SU Winner – Middle Tennessee, ATS Winner – Middle Tennessee, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Middle Tennessee D has 23 sacks on the year while UTEP has just 14.
The UTEP offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Middle Tennessee has lost six.
Each offense has recorded 10 pass plays of 30+ yards.
The Middle Tennessee defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UTEP has given up seven such plays.
The Middle Tennessee offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UTEP has created 13 such runs.
Both defenses have allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Blue Raiders have given up 45 running plays of 10+ yards while the Miners have given up 50 such plays.
The Over/Under for UTEP’s last match was 45.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-26 win over Rice.
In its last three matchups, UTEP is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three games, Middle Tennessee is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Middle Tennessee has won six of its last seven games SU, with a three-point loss to FIU on October 13th accounting for the only defeat over that span.
The O/U for Middle Tennessee’s last game was 53. The under cashed in the team’s 29-10 victory over Western Kentucky.
Middle Tennessee has averaged 4.2 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.5 over its last two.
UTEP has averaged 2.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
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