The No. 7 Mountaineers (-14) are set to welcome their in-conference foe TCU Horned Frogs to West Virginia. Fans can catch the action live on FS1 and kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. ET.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big 12 game, West Virginia is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to put down $600 to win $100 back on the Mountaineers (-600). The Horned Frogs are getting +425 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 56 points. It appears that there should be multiple decent live betting possibilities for this game.
The betting odds have shifted a hair from where they initially opened. The line opened at -13 and the game’s over/under was originally placed at 56.5.
The less-than-stellar Horned Frogs are 1-7-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 10.2 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-5. The surprising Mountaineers have gained 2.6 units this season. They’re 6-2 ATS and own an even O/U record of 4-4.
The Horned Frogs have gone 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Mountaineers are 7-1 SU overall and are also 5-1 SU in conference play.
The Horned Frogs enter after a 14-13 win over Kansas State last week where Michael Collins completed just 17-of-33 passes for 218 yards and one touchdown. Darius Anderson (48 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack. Jarrison Stewart (five receptions, 54 yards) and Jaelan Austin (four catches, 39 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
West Virginia just picked up a 42-41 win over Texas. The defense allowed the Longhorns to pass for 354 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 166 yards and two scores. Lil’Jordan Humphrey had a good showing in the loss for Texas, accounting for 143 yards on nine catches. For West Virginia, Will Grier completed 28-of-42 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Kennedy McKoy (94 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Martell Pettaway (121 yards on nine carries, two TDs) handled the running game while David Sills V (six receptions, 97 yards, two TDs) and Marcus Simms (five catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. TCU has run the ball on 51.4 percent of its offensive possessions while West Virginia has an overall rush percentage of 49.6. The Horned Frogs have produced 153 rush yards/game (including 117 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are logging 158 rushing yards per game (143 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Horned Frogs ought to own an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded just 18 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The Mountaineers offensive line has allowed 19 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 24 occasions.
The Horned Frogs offensive scheme has averaged 240 yards in the air overall (239 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Mountaineers have recorded 333 pass yards per contest (316.7 in the Big 12) and have 29 total pass scores.
TCU appears to possess an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 144 yards and pass for 191 yards per game. The West Virginia defense has allowed 233.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Horned Frogs have given up an ANY/A of 5.82 to opposing QBs, while the Mountaineers are yielding an ANY/A of 5.80.
Offensively, Collins has amassed 465 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 30-of-64 attempts with four passing scores and one interception. He has a 7.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.31 over the last two games.
Jalen Reagor, Darius Anderson and Jarrison Stewart have collectively accounted for 499 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the home locker room, Will Grier has completed 165-of-234 passes for 2,265 yards, 25 TDs and seven INTs. Grier’s ANY/A sits at 9.25 for the season and 11.49 over his last two games.
We’re looking for the Mountaineers to control the game’s pace by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. In addition to David Sills V (487 receiving yards, nine receiving TDs this season), Kennedy McKoy (437 rush yards, two rush TDs, 119 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Martell Pettaway (364 rush yards, two rush TDs, one TD) have been significant factors in the West Virginia offense.
When these two teams faced one another last year, TCU won by a touchdown 31-24.
Betting Pick: TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
SU Winner – West Virginia, ATS Winner – West Virginia, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The TCU defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this year. West Virginia has produced just 17 sacks.
West Virginia has lost three fumbles this season while TCU has lost eight.
Each team has produced 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Horned Frogs have have made 16 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Mountaineers have created 21 such plays.
The TCU defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while West Virginia has given up five such plays.
The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while West Virginia has created 11 such runs.
The Horned Frogs defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Mountaineers have given up 10 such runs.
The O/U for West Virginia’s previous outing was set at 57.5. The over cashed in that 42-41 win over Texas.
Over its last three matches, West Virginia is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for TCU’s last game was set at 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-13 victory over Kansas State.
As a team, TCU has averaged 3.4 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 3.2 over its last two.
West Virginia has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.1 over its past two.
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