The Miami Heat (5-5) clash with the Indiana Pacers (7-5) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 9, 2018.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Pacers are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 100-94 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last game. The game’s combined points (194) were well under the O/U total of 217. One of Philadelphia’s largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 18-22 (81.8 percent), while the Pacers were 12-17 (70.6 percent). Victor Oladipo was the game’s high scorer with 36 points on 14-for-30 shooting.
In the Heat’s last outing, they defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 95-88, covering as 1-point favorites. The game’s combined points (183) were well under the O/U total of 216.5. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.5 vs. 20.7) and held the Spurs to an effective field goal percentage of 0.399 (below their season average of 0.512). Hassan Whiteside was the top scorer from either team with 29 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the field.
After splitting four games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, the Pacers won 113-107. The Pacers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.8 vs. 14.6) and had a better free throw rate (0.189 vs. 0.128).
Indiana holds records of 7-5 straight up (SU) and 5-6-1 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers tend to place the total high when the Pacers are playing, as 66.7 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS. Unlike Indiana, games including the Heat tend to go over the total (70.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Oladipo (24.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals) has been great for the Pacers while Josh Richardson (23.2 points, 1.6 blocks and 1.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Heat.
Miami might struggle to find the bottom of the net as they clash against one of the league’s best defenses. Indiana currently ranks seventh in defensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 17th in offensive efficiency.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Indiana is 2-3-1 ATS on the road with 3 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Indiana is 2-1 and Miami is 2-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 4-5 and the Pacers are 7-1.
Miami ranks third in rebounds per game (50.0) while Indiana ranks 27th (40.9).
The Pacers rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.0) while the Heat rank 26th (17.0).
Miami ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (34.0) while Indiana ranks 28th (24.6).
The Pacers average 20.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Heat rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9).
Miami averages 7.3 blocks per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Indiana ranks 17th in blocks allowed per game (6.0).
The Pacers average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Heat rank 11th in steals allowed per game (7.3).
Indiana is second in the NBA with 39.8 points allowed in the paint per game while Miami is fifth with 44.0 points allowed in the paint per game.
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS with 5 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Pacers have been outscored by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Indiana has defeated opponents by an average of 3.5 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (4.7 above their season average).
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