The Dallas Mavericks (4-8) look to snap their six-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Chicago Bulls (4-9) at United Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, November 12, 2018.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls ATS Prediction
The Mavericks will be looking for a similar outcome after easily covering the 1.5-point spread against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game, 111-96. The total points for the game (207) finished under the projected point total of 213.5. Dallas’ 0.649 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a mark of 0.438. The Mavericks’ mark was above their season average of 0.519, while the Thunder’s was below their season average of 0.495. With 22 points on 9-for-15 shooting, Luka Doncic was the top scorer from either team.
In the Bulls’ last game, they barely escaped the Cleveland Cavaliers, 99-98, but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (197) finished well under the projected point total of 212.5. The Bulls had a better free throw rate (0.171 vs. 0.132) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.518 vs. 0.473). Zach LaVine was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 9-for-22 shooting from the field.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Bulls lost 115-109, unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. LaVine scored a game-high 34 points. The game finished with a total of 224 points, which was just 5 points below the projected point total of 229 points. The Mavericks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.5 vs. 20.0) and had a better turnover percentage (12.8 vs. 17.6).
Dallas has a solid record against the spread (7-5), despite being 4-8 straight up (SU). Of the Mavericks’ 12 games, seven have finished over the total.
Chicago is 8-5 ATS, despite being 4-9 SU. Unlike Dallas, games involving the Bulls have typically finished under the total (61.5 percent).
Wendell Carter Jr. has averaged 15.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Chicago.
Second-chance opportunities could be hard to find for Chicago in this meeting. The Bulls rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (17.6 percent), while Dallas ranks eighth in defensive rebounding percentage (78.4 percent).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Bulls, ATS Winner – Bulls, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dallas is 3-3 ATS with 4 overs and 2 unders.
At home, Chicago is 5-2 ATS with 5 unders and 2 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Chicago is 2-1 and Dallas is 1-0.
When scoring over 100 points, the Bulls are 2-7 and the Mavericks are 4-8.
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (28.8) while Chicago ranks 26th (34.3).
The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Bulls rank 25th (49.3).
Dallas ranks 10th in second chance points per game (14.7) while Chicago ranks last (9.2).
The Mavericks rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while the Bulls rank 23rd (6.8).
Dallas ranks 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while Chicago ranks 28th (14.2).
The Bulls rank 16th in steals allowed per game (7.7) while the Mavericks rank 26th (9.7).
Dallas ranks 14th in assists per game (23.7) while Chicago ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.3).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.8) while the Bulls rank eighth (45.4).
Chicago averages 12.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 21st in fast break points allowed per game (15.5).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Chicago is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 1.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Dallas has lost by an average of 2.9 points.
During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 101.2 points per game (5.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.6 points per game (8.5 below their season average).
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