The Memphis Tigers (-8) are set to pay a visit to their conference nemesis SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The game is scheduled to get underway at 9:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will televise the action.
Memphis Tigers at SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU enters this AAC game as a big underdog and is currently being given 8 points. The Tigers are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are +260. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 72.5 points. Should the favorites get behind early on, it’ll likely produce a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s O/U has been driven downward after initially being set at 73. The opening line (8) has remained firm.
The hapless Tigers are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 10.2 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-4. The Mustangs have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 9.0 units. The team is 5-5 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Tigers are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against AAC opponents. The Mustangs are 5-5 SU overall and 4-2 SU in conference play.
Each team enters this matchup on a two-game unbeaten streak. The Tigers are looking to maintain momentum after a solid 47-21 win over Tulsa last week. The passing game was sharp as Brady White completed 14-of-20 passes for only 184 yards and two touchdowns. Darrell Henderson (166 rushing yards on 23 attempts, two TDs) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (96 yards on 20 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Damonte Coxie (six receptions, 110 yards) and Tony Pollard (three catches, 53 yards) handled the receiving duties.
SMU takes the field this week following a 62-50 win over Connecticut. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Huskies to run for 365 yards on 49 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Kevin Mensah torched the defense, recording 184 rushing yards and a score on 28 attempts for Connecticut. For SMU, Ben Hicks completed 19-of-29 passes for 276 yards and one touchdown. Ke’Mon Freeman (116 yards on 17 rush attempts, three TDs) and Xavier Jones (133 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win while James Proche (six receptions, 101 yards) and Reggie Roberson, Jr. (five catches, 51 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
Memphis has run the ball on 58.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has an overall rush percentage of 48.5 percent. The Tigers have produced 270 rush yards/game (including 250 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 34 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Mustangs are totaling 130 rushing yards per game (135 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then the Tigers should hold an advantage in terms of RB efficiency, since their backfield has generated 6.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.1 YPC to opponents. The Mustangs have registered 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 262 yards through the air overall (237 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing TDs so far. The Mustangs have put up 260 pass yards per game (269.8 against AAC foes) and have 25 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Memphis has allowed 169 rush yards and 232 pass yards per game. The SMU defense has given up 229.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 201.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Tigers have given up an ANY/A of 6.58 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs are yielding an ANY/A of 6.29.
Offensively, White is up to 2,150 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 64 percent of his 242 attempts with 19 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has a pristine 8.99 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.10 over the past two outings.
Ben Hicks has managed to complete 125-of-228 passes for 1,601 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs for SMU. His ANY/A sits at 6.31 for the season and 9.19 across his last two games.
When these two schools met last year, Memphis won by three touchdowns 66-45.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Memphis Tigers at SMU Mustangs
SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Tigers offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have accounted for 14 such plays.
The Memphis defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while SMU has given up four such plays.
The Memphis offense has created 34 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while SMU has created 14 such runs.
Both defenses have allowed 16 rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Tigers have given up 51 running plays of 10+ yards while the Mustangs have given up 68 such plays.
The Memphis D has 24 sacks on the year while SMU has 23.
Memphis has rushed for 5.2 yards per attempt across its last three contests and 5.4 over its last two.
SMU has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.5 over its past two.
In its last three matches, SMU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Memphis’ previous game was set at 65.5. The over cashed in the team’s 47-21 triumph over Tulsa.
In its last three matchups, Memphis is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for SMU’s last matchup was set at 66. The over cashed in the 62-50 win over Connecticut.
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