In a battle of two teams that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Coach Shawn Elliott and the Georgia State Panthers (+29) are taking on the No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. This SBC matchup is scheduled to get going at 2:30 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on ESPN+.
Georgia State Panthers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview
Georgia State is a heavy live dog here and is currently getting 29 points by bookmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54 points. Should one side finds paydirt early, it will probably create a decent live betting opportunity.
The less-than-stellar Panthers are down 5.5 units so far and 2-7-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 5-4. The Mountaineers have lost 0.5 units this season. The team is 7-2 ATS and also has an O/U record of 5-4.
The Panthers are 2-8 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against SBC opponents. The Mountaineers are 7-2 SU overall and 5-1 SU in conference play.
When these two squads met a year ago, Appalachian State won by three touchdowns 31-10.
Appalachian State enters this one on a five-game losing streak while Georgia State has won its last two in a row. The Panthers fell to Louisiana 36-22 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to eat up the clock by rushing for 355 yards on 38 attempts, including four rush TDs. Offensively, Aaron Winchester completed just 10-of-21 passes for 121 yards, along with a TD and an interception. Tra Barnett (82 yards on 15 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Winchester (51 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the ground attack. Cornelius McCoy (two receptions, 60 yards) and Penny Hart (two catches, eight yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Appalachian State is coming off of a 38-7 win over Texas State. Zac Thomas completed 25-of-36 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas (76 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and Darrynton Evans (86 yards on nine carries, two TDs) mounted the running game while Jalen Virgil (five receptions, 51 yards) and Dominique Heath (four catches, 38 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Georgia State has run the ball on 57.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Appalachian State has an overall rush percentage of 62.2 percent. The Panthers have rushed for 177 yards/game (including 217 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are averaging 249 rush yards per game (251 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Mountaineers could own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has produced 5.9 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Panthers have ran for 4.4 yards per carry while allowing 6.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Panthers offense has averaged 218 yards through the air overall (221 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Mountaineers have put up 198 pass yards per game (155.3 in the SBC) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Georgia State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 251 yards and pass for 246 yards per game. The Appalachian State D has allowed 154.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.2 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.55 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up a whopping 9.32 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Winchester is up to 236 yards this season, and has connected on 54 percent of his 39 attempts with two scores through the air and one interception. He’s got a 5.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.53 over the last two outings.
Zac Thomas has completed 106-of-169 passes for 1,392 yards, 13 TDs and four INTs for Appalachian State. His ANY/A stands at 8.10 for the season and 7.62 over his last two games.
Free Pick: Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers
SU Winner – Appalachian State, ATS Winner – Georgia State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Panthers offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Mountaineers have accounted for six such plays.
The Georgia State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Appalachian State has given up three such plays.
The Georgia State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Appalachian State has created 21 such runs.
The Panthers defense has allowed 27 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Mountaineers have given up seven such runs.
The Appalachian State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times this year. Georgia State has produced just 10 sacks.
As a team, Georgia State has produced 6.2 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
Appalachian State has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.
In its last three games, Appalachian State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Georgia State’s last game going into it was 68. The under cashed in the team’s 36-22 loss to Louisiana.
In its last three matchups, Georgia State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Appalachian State’s previous matchup was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the 38-7 win over Texas State.
Georgia State has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 32-point victory over Louisiana-Monroe on September 29th representing the only win over that span.
Appalachian State has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a -20-point defeat to Georgia Southern on October 25th accounting for the only loss over that span.
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