A couple of teams that prefer to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Blake Anderson and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8) are ready to host the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Centennial Bank Stadium. Kickoff for this vital SBC showdown is set for 3:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ESPN+. When the two programs faced one another a year ago, Arkansas State earned the win 67-50.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
Louisiana-Monroe is a noticeable road underdog in this SBC game and is currently getting 8 points. The Warhawks are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -330. If one side can get out in front early it’ll produce a nice in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 66.5 points.
The line initially opened at -10 and the game’s over/under was originally 64.5, so the early action appears to be shifted toward both the Warhawks and the over.
The Warhawks are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.2 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6. The Red Wolves are up 0.9 units this season. The team is 4-6 ATS and also owns an O/U record of 3-6.
The Warhawks are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Red Wolves are 6-4 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.
The Warhawks are coming off a resounding 38-10 win over South Alabama last week where Caleb Evans completed 27-of-32 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns. Evans (54 rushing yards on 12 attempts, two TDs) also mounted the ground attack. D’Marius Gillespie (seven receptions, 159 yards, one TD) and Markis McCray (five catches, 41 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Arkansas State is coming off of a 44-16 win over Coastal Carolina. The defense allowed the Chanticleers to rush for 128 yards on 37 attempts. Torrance Marable was a bright spot in the loss for Coastal Carolina, posting 59 rushing yards on 12 attempts, along with 33 yards on four catches. As a group, the Red Wolves collectively completed 23-of-29 passes for 281 yards and four touchdowns. Justice Hansen went 18-for-20 for 253 yards and four touchdowns while Logan Bonner was five-of-nine for 28 yards. Marcel Murray (65 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) handled the running attack while Kirk Merritt (11 receptions, 180 yards) and Justin McInnis (four catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Louisiana-Monroe’s run the ball on 51.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Arkansas State has an overall rush percentage of 50.1. The Warhawks have rushed for 181 yards per game (including 201 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 20 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Red Wolves are logging 180 rush yards per game (174 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Warhawks could hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.5 YPC to opponents. The Red Wolves have ran for 4.8 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.
The Warhawks offense has averaged 255 yards in the air overall (248 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Red Wolves have put up 286 pass yards per outing (292.8 against SBC competition) and have 23 total pass scores.
Defensively, Louisiana-Monroe has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 179 yards and pass for 251 yards per game. The Arkansas State D has allowed 176.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 211.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Red Wolves are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.26 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks have allowed a 7.83 ANY/A.
Offensively, Evans has amassed 2,113 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 62 percent of his 300 attempts with 11 passing scores and six interceptions. Evans has a 6.28 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.21 over the past two outings.
Justice Hansen has connected on 195-of-300 passes for 2,318 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs for Arkansas State. His ANY/A stands at 7.32 for the year and 12.72 over his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves
SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Trends
Arkansas State has lost five fumbles this season while Louisiana-Monroe has let 10 get away.
The Louisiana-Monroe defense has sacked opposing QBs 32 times this season. Arkansas State has registered just 24 sacks.
Louisiana-Monroe has rushed for 5.2 yards per attempt across its past three games and 5.1 over its last two.
Arkansas State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its last two.
In its last three matchups, Arkansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Louisiana-Monroe’s last game was 63. The under cashed in the team’s 38-10 victory over South Alabama.
In its last three games, Louisiana-Monroe is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Arkansas State’s last outing going into it was 61. The under cashed in the 44-16 triumph over Coastal Carolina.
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