The TCU Horned Frogs (+2) aren’t traveling far to face their in-conference rival Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. FS1 will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears Betting Preview
TCU is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 2 points in this Big 12 game. The Horned Frogs are also receiving +110 moneyline odds while the Bears are -130. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52.5 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
This game’s O/U was initially set at 53.5, but the under is receiving the majority of the early sharp action.
The less-than-stellar Horned Frogs have lost 11.2 units so far and are 1-8-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 4-5. The Bears are up 0.6 units this season. The team is 5-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-4.
The Horned Frogs are 4-6 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Bears are 5-5 SU overall and are also 3-4 SU in conference play.
The Horned Frogs are on the rebound after a 47-10 defeat to West Virginia last week. Michael Collins completed 22-of-37 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown. As a team, the Horned Frogs produced a grand total of -7 rushing yards in the loss.
One week ago, Iowa State knocked off this Baylor crew by a score of 28-14. As a group, the team collectively completed 29-of-48 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns. Charlie Brewer went 26-for-36 for 288 yards and two touchdowns while Jalan McClendon was three-of-12 for 71 yards. Brewer (72 yards on 12 rush attempts) handled the running game as Pooh Stricklin (five receptions, 67 yards, one TD) and Hurd (five catches, 81 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
TCU’s run the ball on 50.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baylor has an overall rush percentage of 48.3 percent. The Horned Frogs have produced 137 rush yards/game (including 99 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Bears are averaging 160 rushing yards per game (155 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Horned Frogs ought to hold an edge in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded only 18 sacks while their D-line logged 42 sacks. The Bears, on the other hand, have given up 38 sacks and their defense has logged only 23 sacks.
The Horned Frogs offense has tallied 239 yards per game through the air overall (238 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bears have produced 292 pass yards per outing (275.9 against Big 12 foes) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, TCU appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 146 yards and throw for 209 yards per game. The Baylor defense has allowed 246.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 183.8 yards per game on the ground. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.26 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have given up a 7.43 ANY/A.
Offensively, Collins has put up 827 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 57 percent of his 101 attempts with five passing scores and two interceptions. He has a 7.44 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.18 over the last two games.
On the other sideline, Charlie Brewer has completed 179-of-289 passes for 2,108 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Brewer’s ANY/A sits at 6.24 for the season and 9.24 over his past two games.
When these two schools met last year, TCU knocked Baylor off handily 45-22.
Free Pick: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears
SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Horned Frogs offense has recorded 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bears have put up five such plays.
The TCU defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Baylor has given up 11 such plays.
The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Baylor has created nine such runs.
The Horned Frogs defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bears have given up 22 such runs.
The TCU defensive unit has 24 sacks on the year while Baylor has 20.
TCU has produced 2.3 yards per carry over its past three contests and 1.0 over its last two.
Baylor has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.
Over its last three matches, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for TCU’s last game was set at 55. The over cashed in the team’s 47-10 defeat to West Virginia.
In its last three matches, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Baylor’s last game going into it was 51. The under cashed in the 28-14 loss to Iowa State.
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