In a collision of two schools that prefer to run the football, Bulldogs of Fresno State (-15) are prepared to welcome their conference nemesis San Diego State Aztecs to Bulldog Stadium. Kickoff is fairly late for fans on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview
In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, Fresno State has been projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 15 points. The Aztecs are also receiving +550 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -840. There should be some solid live betting possibilities while the matchup is taking place, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 44 points.
The line originally opened at -16 while the over/under was initially 44.5, so sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Aztecs.
Each team has been profitable this season as the Aztecs have gained 6.3 units and the Bulldogs are up 2.5 units.
The Aztecs are 7-3 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Bulldogs are 8-2 SU overall and 5-1 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs are hoping to get back in stride after a narrow 27-24 defeat to UNLV last week where the Aztecs completed 22-of-36 passes for 279 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ryan Agnew went 14-for-26 for 187 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Christian Chapman completed eight-of-10 for 92 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Juwan Washington (66 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack in the loss. Ethan Dedeaux (seven receptions, 63 yards) and Tim Wilson Jr. (five catches, 123 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties.
Fresno State just fell 24-17 to Boise State. The team’s defense allowed the Broncos to rush for 179 yards on 44 attempts, including two rush TDs. Alexander Mattison was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 30 attempts for Boise State. For Fresno State, Marcus McMaryion completed 24-of-35 passes for 283 yards and one touchdown. McMaryion (12 yards on nine rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as KeeSean Johnson (eight receptions, 95 yards, one TD) and Ronnie Rivers (seven catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
San Diego State’s run the ball on 63.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 60.6 percent across possessions in conference play. Fresno State has an overall rush percentage of 52.1 percent, and has kept it on the ground 49.7 percent of the time when facing MWC opponents. The Aztecs have produced 166 rush yards/game (including 145 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 14 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulldogs are logging 146 rushing yards per game (133 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Bulldogs ought to hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has allowed only eight sacks while the D-line has logged 17 sacks. The Aztecs offensive line has allowed 27 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 20 times.
The Aztecs offense has logged 190 yards/contest through the air overall (202 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 281 pass yards per contest (285.5 against MWC competition) and have 22 total pass scores.
San Diego State has let opponents run for an average of 95 yards and pass for 208 yards per game. The Fresno State defense has given up 187.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 133.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.68 to opposing QBs, while the Aztecs have given up a 5.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, Chapman has amassed 317 passing yards this season, and has completed 67 percent of his 36 attempts with one passing scores and one interception. He has a 5.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.63 over the last two games.
Marcus McMaryion has managed to complete 195-of-278 passes for 2,425 yards, 19 TDs and two INTs for Fresno State. His ANY/A sits at 9.30 for the season and 7.51 over his last two outings.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 27-3 victory for Fresno State.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Aztecs offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for seven such plays.
The San Diego State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Fresno State has given up six such plays.
The San Diego State offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Fresno State has created 11 such runs.
Both defenses have allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Aztecs have given up 20 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bulldogs have given up 38 such plays.
The San Diego State defense has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this year. Fresno State has produced 17 sacks.
San Diego State has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.4 over its last two.
Fresno State has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
In its last three matchups, Fresno State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for San Diego State’s previous game was set at 52. The under cashed in the team’s 27-24 loss to UNLV.
Over its last three matchups, San Diego State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Fresno State’s last match going into it was 55. The under cashed in that 24-17 loss to Boise State.
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