Two schools that like to feature their running games, Coach Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes (-15.5) are set to pay a visit to the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. This Big 10 game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and BTN will televise the action.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big Ten matchup, Iowa is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 15.5 points. The Hawkeyes are also receiving -945 moneyline odds while the Fighting Illini are +600. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points, and if one program finds paydirt early, it’ll probably lead to a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.
The game’s O/U has been driven lower after originally being set at 59. The opening spread of 15.5 has remained consistent.
The Hawkeyes are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.8 units so far. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 5-4. The Fighting Illini have gained 1.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-4.
The Hawkeyes have gone 6-4 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against conference opponents. The Fighting Illini are 4-6 SU overall and are also 2-5 SU in conference play.
These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 45-16 win for Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are looking to bounce back after a 14-10 defeat to Northwestern last week. Nate Stanley completed 27-of-41 passes for 269 yards and one touchdown. Mekhi Sargent (only 27 rushing yards on 10 attempts) led the ground attack while Nick Easley (eight receptions, 53 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (seven catches, 89 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Nebraska knocked off this Illinois team by a score of 54-35. AJ Bush completed 11-of-25 passes for 126 yards and two interceptions. Bush (187 rushing yards on 25 attempts, three TDs) and Ra’Von Bonner (81 yards on 10 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as Ricky Smalling (five receptions, 43 yards) and Trenard Davis (three catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Iowa has run the ball on 54.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Illinois has an overall rush percentage of 61.7 percent. The Hawkeyes have produced 148 rush yards/game (including 136 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Fighting Illini are totaling 263 rush yards per game (271 in conference) and have 25 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Hawkeyes ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded just 25 sacks while their D-line logged 29 sacks. The Fighting Illini O-line has allowed 42 sacks and their defense has forced only 19 sacks.
The Hawkeyes offensive scheme has tallied 238 yards per game in the air overall (248 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Fighting Illini have produced 163 pass yards per game (161.3 in the Big 10) and have nine total pass TDs.
Defensively, Iowa should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 96 yards and throw for 190 yards per game. The Illinois D has allowed 285.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 247.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hawkeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.25 to opponents, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 7.49 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Stanley has amassed 2,033 yards on the year, and has connected on 58 percent of his 285 attempts with 17 passing scores and eight interceptions. Stanley’s got a 6.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.64 over the last two games.
AJ Bush has completed 64-of-125 passes for 834 yards, three TDs and six INTs for Illinois. His ANY/A stands at a horrendous 3.93 for the season and 4.22 across his past two games.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini
SU Winner – Hawkeyes, ATS Winner – Hawkeyes, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
Illinois has lost nine fumbles this season while Iowa has lost six.
The Iowa D has 28 sacks on the year while Illinois has just 18.
Iowa has produced 3.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.1 over its last two.
Illinois has averaged 8.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 9.7 over its past two.
In its last three contests, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Iowa’s previous game going into it was 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-10 defeat to Northwestern.
Over its last three matchups, Iowa is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Illinois’ last matchup was set at 72.5. The over cashed in that 54-35 loss to Nebraska.
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