In a battle featuring two schools that like running the football, Coach Everett Withers and the Texas State Bobcats (+24) will be facing off against their in-conference nemesis Troy Trojans at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN+ and kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans Betting Preview
Texas State is a heavy live dog here and is currently getting 24 points by oddsmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points, and this showdown ought to present some live betting possibilities.
The O/U hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 49.5. Having said that, the opening line was -23 and has recently moved down to -24.
The Bobcats are 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.5 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 4-6. The Trojans have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.9 units. The team is 7-2-1 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Bobcats are just 3-7 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against conference opponents. The Trojans are 8-2 SU overall and 6-0 SU in conference play.
The Bobcats could be showing signs of mailing it in following a 31-point loss to Appalachian State last week. Tyler Vitt completed 17 passes for only 106 yards, along with one score and a pick. Caleb Twyford (35 yards on 11 rush attempts) led the ground attack. Keenen Brown (seven receptions, 44 yards, one TD) and Tyler Watts (three catches, 18 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Troy takes the field on Saturday after just earning a 35-21 win over Georgia Southern. Sawyer Smith completed 21-of-28 passes for 287 yards and one touchdown. B.J. Smith (86 rushing yards on 22 attempts, two TDs) and DK Billingsley (32 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game as Sidney Davis (10 receptions, 85 yards) and Jabir Daughtry-Frye (four catches, 32 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Texas State has run the ball on 56.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Troy has an overall rush percentage of 58.7. The Bobcats have produced 141 rush yards per game (including 128 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 196 rushing yards per game (211 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Trojans could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has logged 5.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Bobcats have ran for 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.7 YPC to opponents.
The Bobcats offensive scheme has averaged 190 yards in the air overall (204 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Trojans have recorded 223 pass yards per outing (253.3 in the SBC) and have 20 total pass TDs.
Texas State appears to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 183 yards and throw for 206 yards per game. The Troy defense has allowed 230.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bobcats have given up an ANY/A of 5.72 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans are yielding an ANY/A of 5.47.
Offensively, Jones III is up to 659 passing yards this season, and has connected on 50 percent of his 106 attempts with five scores through the air and two interceptions. Jones III has a 4.97 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 13.00 over the past two outings.
Sawyer Smith has connected on 65-of-103 passes for 793 yards, eight TDs and four INTs for Troy. His ANY/A sits at 6.86 for the year and 12.47 over his last two games.
These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 62-9 victory for Troy.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Texas State Bobcats at Troy Trojans
SU Winner – Troy, ATS Winner – Texas State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Troy has lost 10 fumbles this season while Texas State has lost nine.
The Troy defense has tallied 34 sacks on the year while Texas State has just 12.
As a team, Texas State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.7 over its last two.
Troy has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
In its last three games, Troy is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Texas State’s previous game going into it was 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 38-7 loss to Appalachian State.
Over its last three matches, Texas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Troy’s previous matchup going into it was 44.5. The over cashed in the 35-21 win over Georgia Southern.
Troy has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a -6-point defeat to Liberty on October 13th representing the lone loss over that span.
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