A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Here are Week 11’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Opening: Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Los Angeles Rams
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 11 Opening Odds
More than anything, this line movement is a result of the venue change. Previously on a neutral field in Mexico City, the game will now be played in Los Angeles. The old rule of thumb is home-field advantage is worth three points, so it’s actually a bit surprising that the Chiefs only got 2.5 more points since the opening. It’s easy to see why bettors are shying away from the Rams, though. After failing to cover at home against the Seahawks in Week 10, the Rams have now covered once in their last seven games. The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread on the road and 3-0 as underdogs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Everyone saw the Steelers give the Panthers a beating on national television and that, along with being one of the most public teams in the league, led to money pouring in on the Steelers. Perhaps bettors also perceive a mental boost for Pittsburgh now that the Le’Veon Bell saga is finally behind them. Not only that, but the Steelers have covered five in a row and six of their last seven. That said, this seems to be the sort of game the Steelers lose. How often do we see them lose a road game they have no business losing? Surely they won’t take Jacksonville lightly after losing to them twice last year, but their rough history in these spots should give bettors pause.
Philadelphia Eagles (+9) at New Orleans Saints
Opening: Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at New Orleans Saints
The easy answer for this movement is the Saints are atop almost everyone’s power rankings and the Eagles just lost at home on Sunday night to the Cowboys as 7.5 point favorites. The Eagles also just lost Ronald Darby for the season and they could again be without Sidney Jones and Jalen Mills. In other words, it’s fair to expect Drew Brees to decimate Philadelphia’s secondary. However, the Eagles haven’t lost by more than six all year and the Saints could be distracted by their Thanksgiving matchup with the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) at New York Giants
Opening: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (EVEN) at New York Giants
Winning on national television, as the Giants did on Monday night, is always going to lead to more public money. Going against Tampa is also understandable considering they’ve covered once in their last seven games. But the Giants have their own negative trend, having failed to cover at home this season. You’d be forgiven for avoiding this game entirely, considering the recent play from each team, but the public at least seems to think the Giants have the advantage.
