The Miami Heat (6-9) clash against the Los Angeles Lakers (8-7) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game is scheduled to get underway at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 18, 2018.
Miami is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 229.5 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
In the Lakers’ last game, they were beaten by the Orlando Magic, 130-117, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The game’s total points (247) finished well over the O/U total of 223. Orlando’s 25.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Los Angeles, who had a rate of 21.1. The Magic’s mark was above their season average of 21.0. LeBron James led Los Angeles in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-19 shooting.
The Heat were beaten by the Indiana Pacers in their last game, 99-91. They failed to cover as 5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (190) came in well under the projected point total of 213.5. One of Indiana’s largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 13-15 (86.7 percent), while the Heat were just 7-10 (70.0 percent). Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had 12 points and 17 rebounds in the contest.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent matchup, the Heat won 92-91. The Heat’s 9.9 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Lakers, who had a mark of 18.9.
Los Angeles holds records of 8-7 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Lakers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 6-9 SU and 6-9 ATS. Heat games have a tendency to go over the O/U total (73.3 percent).
Tyler Johnson has averaged 14.4 points and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Miami.
The offensive glass could be a solid edge for Miami in this meeting. The Heat currently rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while Los Angeles ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.2 percent).
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Free Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Los Angeles is 3-3 ATS with 3 overs and 3 unders.
Miami is 3-5 ATS at home with 6 overs and 2 unders.
Los Angeles is 1-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Miami is 2-1.
The Heat are 5-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Lakers are 8-7.
Miami ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.3) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (54.3).
The Lakers average 19.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.4).
Los Angeles averages 6.1 blocks per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Miami ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (6.1).
The Lakers rank ninth in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Heat rank 28th in second chance points allowed per game (16.7).
Los Angeles ranks second in fast break points per game (21.9) while Miami ranks 19th (12.0).
The Heat rank sixth in rebounds per game (47.6) while the Lakers rank 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (46.9).
Los Angeles ranks fifth in assists per game (25.7) while Miami ranks 19th (22.6).
The Lakers rank sixth in steals per game (8.9) while the Heat rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
Miami averages 33.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (31.5).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (0.7 above their season average).
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