The Minnesota Timberwolves (7-9) welcome the Memphis Grizzlies (9-5) to Target Center as they attempt to extend their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 18, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Minnesota opened as a 5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
In the Grizzlies’ last game, they covered the 6.5-point spread against the Sacramento Kings, 112-104. The game’s combined points (216) finished over the O/U total of 212. Memphis’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Sacramento. The Grizzlies had a rate of 12.0 (better than their season average of 12.0), while the Kings posted a mark of 18.8 (above their season average of 12.3). Memphis rallied around Jaren Jackson Jr., who was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
The Timberwolves were victorious over the Portland Trail Blazers in their last matchup, 112-96, comfortably covering as 1.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (208) were well under the O/U total of 225. Minnesota’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Portland. The Timberwolves had a rate of 11.0 (better than their season average of 11.7), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 15.7 (above their season average of 12.3). Andrew Wiggins was the game’s high scorer with 23 points on 9-for-21 shooting from the field.
Ball security could play an integral role in this matchup. Minnesota commits the fifth-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent), while the disruptive defense of Memphis forces the most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 18.1 percent). Furthermore, the Grizzlies, who rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.232), will face a difficult test against the Timberwolves, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.179).
Memphis comes into the contest with records of 9-5 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Grizzlies are playing, as eight of their 14 games have ended under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota owns records of 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS. Timberwolves games also have a tendency to go under the projected point total (62.5 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Marc Gasol (18.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks) has been great for the Grizzlies while Karl-Anthony Towns (24.4 points, 15.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Timberwolves.
After the Grizzlies won two out of three contests against the Timberwolves last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the most recent game, Minnesota won 113-94. The Timberwolves had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (41.9 vs. 22.7) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.523 vs. 0.441).
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Memphis is 3-4 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 2 overs.
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS at home with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Minnesota is 2-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Memphis is 4-2.
The Timberwolves are 7-6 when they score over 100 points, while the Grizzlies are 7-2.
Memphis ranks sixth in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Minnesota ranks 29th (17.7).
The Grizzlies rank second in points off turnovers per game (21.9) while the Timberwolves rank 24th (15.6).
Minnesota averages 16.6 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Memphis ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.9).
The Grizzlies rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.1) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd (50.4).
Memphis ranks 12th in rebounds allowed per game (44.4) while Minnesota ranks 29th (49.1).
The Grizzlies rank 13th in assists allowed per game (23.6) while the Timberwolves rank 26th (25.3).
Minnesota ranks 18th in three pointers attempted per game (29.7) while Memphis ranks 25th (27.6).
Both of these teams are exceptional at stealing the ball. The Grizzlies are second in the league with 9.8 steals per game while the Timberwolves are third with 9.6 steals per game.
Minnesota averages 5.8 blocks per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Memphis ranks ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, Memphis is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Grizzlies’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 1.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (0.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (6.1 below their season average).
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