Two schools that like to run the football, No. 25 Mountaineers (-11) are gearing up to greet the Troy Trojans in Appalachian State. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN+ and kickoff for this pivotal conference game is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Troy Trojans at Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview
Troy is a live dog here and is currently getting 11 points. The Trojans are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Mountaineers are -450. If one team can catch a lucky break early on it will produce a reasonable live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points.
The early action has leaned in the direction of both the Mountaineers and the under. The opening line was initially -10 while the game’s O/U was originally set at 51.
The surprising Trojans are 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.9 units so far. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 7-4. The Mountaineers are down 0.5 units this season. The team is 8-2 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-4.
The Trojans are 9-2 straight up (SU), including 7-0 SU against SBC opponents. The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 SU in conference play.
These two SBC adversaries did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.
The Trojans just pulled off a 12-7 victory over Texas State last week. The Trojans defense allowed the Bobcats to rush for 129 yards on 36 attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offensive side, Sawyer Smith completed just 13-of-27 passes for 79 yards. B.J. Smith (94 rushing yards on 24 attempts) led the ground attack. Sidney Davis (five receptions, 43 yards) and Deondre Douglas (three catches, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Appalachian State is coming off of a 45-17 win over Georgia State. Zac Thomas completed 20-of-24 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns. Darrynton Evans (127 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (58 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game as Corey Sutton (four receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Thomas Hennigan (four catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Troy has run the ball on 59.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Appalachian State has a rush percentage of 62.0 percent. The Trojans have rushed for 191 yards/game (including 201 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 19 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are averaging 247 rush yards per game (248 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.
The Trojans offensive scheme has averaged 210 yards through the air overall (228 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing TDs so far. The Mountaineers have put up 208 pass yards per outing (175.4 against SBC competition) and also have 20 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Troy has allowed 125 rush yards and 224 pass yards per game. The Appalachian State D has given up 152.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.51 to opponents, while the Trojans have given up a 4.91 ANY/A.
Offensively, Smith is up to 902 passing yards this year, and has completed 60 percent of his 124 attempts with eight scores through the air and four interceptions. Smith has a 6.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.75 over the last two games.
B.J. Smith (954 rushing yards, 10 rush TDs this season), Sidney Davis (232 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Luke Whittemore (161 receiving yards, one TD) have all played key roles lately.
For the home team, Zac Thomas has connected on 101-of-157 passes for 1,427 yards, 14 TDs and four INTs. Thomas’ ANY/A stands at 8.89 for the year and 9.61 across his past two games.
We also expect the Appalachian State offense to mix it up this Saturday. As a group, Darrynton Evans, Corey Sutton and Zac Thomas have combined for 491 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two outings.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Troy Trojans at Appalachian State Mountaineers
SU Winner – Appalachian State, ATS Winner – Appalachian State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Troy defense has more than twice as many sacks as Appalachian State this year (35 versus 17).
The Appalachian State offense has lost three fumbles this season while Troy has lost 10.
The Trojans offense has tallied 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Mountaineers have accounted for seven such plays.
The Troy defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Appalachian State has given up four such plays.
The Troy offense has created 22 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Appalachian State has created 24 such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Mountaineers have given up nine such runs.
The Over/Under for Appalachian State’s last matchup going into it was 55. The over cashed in that 45-17 triumph over Georgia State.
Over its last three matchups, Appalachian State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, Troy is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Troy has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a six-point defeat to Liberty on October 13th accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
Appalachian State has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a -20-point loss to Georgia Southern on October 25th representing its lone slip-up over that span.
The O/U for Troy’s previous game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 12-7 win over Texas State.
Troy has produced 3.0 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
Appalachian State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.2 over its last two.
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