The No. 13 Florida Gators (-5) aren’t traveling far to battle the Florida State Seminoles at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium. ABC has the TV rights and this afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
Florida State is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 5 points. The Gators are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Seminoles are +180. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53.5 points, and it appears that there should be some good live betting opportunities in the game.
This game’s over/under hasn’t moved after it was initially set at 53.5. Having said that, the line opened at 3 so square bettors have been hammering the Gators.
The Gators are 7-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.8 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-5. The Seminoles have lost 4.7 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-4.
The Gators are 8-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Seminoles are 5-6 SU.
The Gators are coming off a resounding 63-10 victory over Idaho last week. The passing game was on point as the Gators completed 31-of-43 passes for 399 yards and five touchdowns. Feleipe Franks went 19-for-27 for 274 yards and three touchdowns while Emory Jones completed 12-of-16 for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Dameon Pierce (77 rushing yards on 13 attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Kadarius Toney (six receptions, 54 yards) and Van Jefferson (three catches, 35 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Florida State just earned a 22-21 win over Boston College. The team’s defense allowed the Eagles to rush for 125 yards on 49 attempts, including two rush TDs. Kobay White had a good showing in the defeat for Boston College, accounting for 121 yards on seven catches. For Florida State, Deondre Francois completed 19-of-39 passes for 322 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Cam Akers (110 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Francois (26 yards on 10 carries) led the ground game in the win as Keyshawn Helton (six receptions, 73 yards) and Tamorrion Terry (three catches, 112 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Florida has run the ball on 58.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Florida State has an overall rush percentage of 45.7 percent. The Gators have rushed for 203 yards per game and have 18 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Noles are putting up 87 rush yards per game and have 10 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Gators might have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has yielded only 37 sacks while the D-line registered 23 sacks. The Seminoles, on the other hand, have given up 32 sacks and their defense has recorded only 29 sacks.
The Gators offense has logged 214 yards/contest through the air overall and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Noles have put up 281 pass yards per contest and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, Florida seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 168 yards and pass for 175 yards per game. The Florida State defense has allowed 270.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 135.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.65 to opponents, while the Noles have given up a 6.18 ANY/A.
Offensively, Franks has amassed 1,869 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 144-of-252 attempts with 19 passing scores and only six interceptions. Franks has a 7.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.02 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Gators to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Jordan Scarlett (470 rush yards, three rush TDs), Lamical Perine (514 rush yards, three rush TDs), and Kadarius Toney (148 rush yards, 206 receiving yards) have delivered in the offensive scheme for Florida.
On the other sideline, Deondre Francois has completed 190-of-320 passes for 2,361 yards, 14 TDs and nine INTs. Francois’ ANY/A stands at 6.08 for the season and 4.60 across his last two games.
The Noles also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to Cam Akers (130 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Tamorrion Terry (617 receiving yards and eight receiving TDs) and Nyqwan Murray (four rush yards, 630 receiving yards, three TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.
When these two schools faced one another a year ago, Florida State got the victory 38-22.
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Florida defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 27 times this year. Florida State has produced 26 sacks.
The Florida State offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while the Florida offense has lost eight.
The Gators offense has produced six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Seminoles have accounted for eight such plays.
The Florida defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Florida State has given up 13 such plays.
The Florida offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida State has created five such runs.
The Gators defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Seminoles have given up nine such runs.
The Over/Under for Florida State’s last game was set at 49.5. The under cashed in the 22-21 victory over Boston College.
Over its last three matchups, Florida State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three contests, Florida is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Florida’s previous game going into it was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 63-10 victory over Idaho.
As a team, Florida has produced 5.4 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.8 over its last two.
Florida State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its past two.
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