The New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames are ready to do battle on the turf at Williams Stadium. ESPN 3 has the TV rights and kickoff will take place at 2:00 p.m. ET.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Betting Preview
New Mexico State is a live dog and is currently getting 9 points in this Saturday IndFBS game. The Aggies are also receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Flames are -360. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 73 points. There should be some good in-game betting possibilities in this showdown.
The Aggies are down 1.6 units so far in 2018 and 2-9 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 7-4. The Flames are up 3.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and six of their games have gone over the total.
The Aggies are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Flames are 4-6 SU overall and are also 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Aggies dropped one to BYU 45-10 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Cougars to rush for 317 yards on 51 attempts, including six rush TDs. Lopini Katoa was unstoppable for the Cougars in that one with 155 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 19 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Adkins completed just 25 passes on 61 attempts for 264 yards, one score and two interceptions. OJ Clark (six receptions, 65 yards) and Royce Caldwell (four catches, 41 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Auburn shut out this Liberty crew by a score of 53-0. The Flames defensive unit let the Tigers run for 340 yards on 61 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Kam Martin had a solid outing in the win, recording 116 rushing yards on 17 attempts for Auburn. For Liberty, Stephen Calvert completed nine-of-28 passes for 79 yards and two interceptions. Frankie Hickson (45 rushing yards on 10 attempts) handled the running game as Antonio Gandy-Golden (three receptions, 22 yards) and B.J. Farrow (two catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
New Mexico State has run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 32.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Liberty has an overall rush percentage of 50.8 percent, and has kept it on the ground 47.9 percent of the time against IndFBS opponents. The Aggies have produced 107 rush yards/game (including 107 per game versus Independents (FBS) opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Flames are logging 149 rushing yards per game (160 in conference) and have 25 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Flames ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 19 sacks while the D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Aggies O-line has allowed 36 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just 26 times.
The Aggies offense has averaged 261 yards in the air overall (333 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Flames have put up 282 pass yards per contest (314.7 against IndFBS competition) and have 18 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New Mexico State should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 280 rush yards and 212 pass yards per game. The Liberty defense has allowed 264.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 246.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Aggies have given up an ANY/A of 7.14 to opposing QBs, while the Flames are yielding an ANY/A of 7.47.
Offensively, Adkins has put up 1,854 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 55 percent of his 295 attempts with eight scores through the air and eight interceptions. Adkins has a 4.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.71 over the last two games.
The Aggies will probably try to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Christian Gibson (479 rush yards, six rush TDs, 52 receiving yards) and Jason Huntley (416 rush yards, five rush TDs, 412 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have really been focal points in the New Mexico State offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Stephen Calvert has connected on 189-of-350 passes for 2,607 yards, 18 TDs and 13 INTs. Calvert’s ANY/A stands at 6.14 for the season and -0.31 over his last two games.
The Flames also like to heavily feature their backfield. B.J. Farrow (431 receiving yards, four TDs) has chipped in lately, but Peytton Pickett (320 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Frankie Hickson (723 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have seen a lot of touches lately.
These two IndFBS adversaries did not get a chance to face each other in 2017.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames
SU Winner – Liberty, ATS Winner – Liberty, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The New Mexico State defense has sacked opposing QBs 26 times this season. Liberty has recorded 22 sacks.
Liberty has lost six fumbles in 2018 while New Mexico State has lost eight.
The Aggies offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Flames have put up five such plays.
The New Mexico State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Liberty has given up 15 such plays.
The New Mexico State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Liberty has created eight such runs.
Both teams have allowed 25 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Aggies have given up 99 running plays of 10+ yards while the Flames have given up 69 such plays.
The Over/Under for Liberty’s last outing was set at 65.5. The under cashed in that 53-0 defeat to Auburn.
Over its last three contests, Liberty is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, New Mexico State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for New Mexico State’s last game was set at 60.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-10 defeat to BYU.
New Mexico State has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.3 over its last two.
Liberty has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
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